Armageddon économique ?

[TODA]

armageddon progressif ?

fuck il est lent lamarche c'est l'horreur de l'ecouter il faudrait heu heu heu qu'il finisse heuuu

heuuu

sa phrase

heuuu

delamarche et 'JIM16 n'est qu'un vieux jaloux

[Poil à gratter]

armageddon progressif ?

Comme le rock ?

Bin le truc c'est que si on se mange une rechute façon 2007 en version dépréciations d'obligations d'état, faillites de collectivités territoriales et de municipalités ça risque de quand même faire beaucoup d'un coup. Mais ça en sera pas forcément le fond du trou, parce que l'air de rien, les gens sont relativement riches.

Bon par contre pour les petits fonctionnaires, et pour ceux qui comptent sur les prestations sociales diverses et variées, la claque sera sévère.

fuck il est lent lamarche c'est l'horreur de l'ecouter il faudrait heu heu heu qu'il finisse heuuu

heuuu

sa phrase

heuuu

Oui il n'a pas l'air en forme sur ce coup là

[Brock]

euhhh non, je ne suis pas euhhh

pas un jaloux euhhh non euhhhh

jecroisquememec'estfouparcequenonmaiscompletementparcequelabon euhh

que euhhhh

euhhhh

[vincponcet]

Comme le rock ?

Bin le truc c'est que si on se mange une rechute façon 2007 en version dépréciations d'obligations d'état, faillites de collectivités territoriales et de municipalités ça risque de quand même faire beaucoup d'un coup. Mais ça en sera pas forcément le fond du trou, parce que l'air de rien, les gens sont relativement riches.

Je connais surtout des gens endettés.

Si ils devaient perdre leur boulot, il y aurait bcp de dégat dans leur patrimoine.

[neuneu2k]

Je connais surtout des gens endettés.

Si ils devaient perdre leur boulot, il y aurait bcp de dégat dans leur patrimoine.

Oui, c'est la raison pour laquelle je suis convaincu que la 'solution' sera l'inflation et non la faillite, il faut juste que les allemands réalisent qu'ils se sont mariés a l'Europe, pour le meilleur… et pour le pire.

Bien entendu, l’inflation n’est pas une solution seule, la seule solution durable c’est l’équilibre des budgets, mais l’inflation est un traitement de choc qui permet d’éliminer vite la charge de la dette et qui, cumulé a un équilibre budgétaire, est probablement la moins pire des solutions.

[E.T. bleu]

Oui, c'est la raison pour laquelle je suis convaincu que la 'solution' sera l'inflation et non la faillite, il faut juste que les allemands réalisent qu'ils se sont mariés a l'Europe, pour le meilleur… et pour le pire.

Bien entendu, l’inflation n’est pas une solution seule, la seule solution durable c’est l’équilibre des budgets, mais l’inflation est un traitement de choc qui permet d’éliminer vite la charge de la dette et qui, cumulé a un équilibre budgétaire, est probablement la moins pire des solutions.

Enfin, inflation avec des taux très inférieurs à l'inflation.

L'inflation avec la concurrence internationale, c'est mal barré, on a un très bel exemple avec les deux décennies japonaises. Et pour ce qui est les taux maintenu très bas, les gens très proche de leur sous comme les néerlandais ou les allemands finiront par se lasser, les capitaux risquent de fuir d'Europe dans des proportions inconnus.

il faut juste que les allemands réalisent qu'ils se sont mariés a l'Europe, pour le meilleur… et pour le pire.

Propos rapportés pour socialo-constructivisme affirmé.

[alfy]

Scénario possible :

1) Suite à une provocation fabriquée, une attaque coordonnée israélo-américaine renvoie l'Iran 50 ans en arrière

2) Parallèlement, le président Obama déclare qu'une cyber-attaque coordonnée depuis la Chine l'oblige à implémenter les contrôles d'Internet déjà prêts

3) Une fois le baril de pétrole à 500 dollars et la demande en dollars temporairement renflouée, Obama décrète le "Dollar 2.0" en invoquant la National Security

4) Pour les mêmes raisons, Obama décrète la confiscation complète de toutes les réserves d'or sur sol américain (y compris banques centrales étrangères non-coopératives)

5) Les entreprises et citoyens américains (et amis du Pouvoir) peuvent échanger 1 ancien dollar contre un nouveau dollar, garantis par les réserves en or et la Puissance Militaire Américaine

6) Les autres peuvent échanger 100'000 anciens dollars contre un nouveau dollar

7) Un contrôle des changes et une planification économique centrale absolue sont achevés

8) La guerre et la révolution, en prologue d'un renouveau libéral classique mondial, issu du traumatisme

[0100011]

9) Ugo Chavez et Obama se tape une bonne bière devant un barbecue avec Zahia en guest-star…

[0100011]

Le bal des saisies comme ouverture de l'Armaggedon party ?

Source : http://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/05/business…t=cse&scp=2

La déliquescence sociétale entrainée par la crise est palpable au travers de cet article.

Florida’s High-Speed Answer to a Foreclosure Mess

Margery Golant, a Florida lawyer, says foreclosure law firms and mortgage servers “are practically running the courtrooms.”

A judge who recently took over their foreclosure case has ordered Rodney Waters; his fiancée, Terri Reese; and their four children to leave the home they bought in 2006.

Mr. Waters, a supervisor at a local packaging company and the family’s sole breadwinner, fell behind on his mortgage two years ago after his property taxes jumped unexpectedly. He now owes $264,000 on the house; a similar home down the street sold for $138,500 in February.

The predicament of the Waters-Reese family is common in Florida today. The state routinely sets new records for foreclosures — in the second quarter, 20.13 percent of its mortgages were delinquent or in foreclosure, a national high, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. And with housing prices still in a free fall, almost half of all borrowers in Florida owe more on their mortgages than their properties are worth, says CoreLogic, a data firm.

While the Waters-Reese case may not be unusual in Florida, the coming auction of the home is still notable: it will be a result of the Florida Legislature’s new effort to cut the number of foreclosures inching their way through the state’s courts. Earlier this year, Florida earmarked $9.6 million to set up foreclosures-only courts across the state, staffed by retired judges. The goal of the program, which began in July, is to reduce the foreclosures backlog by 62 percent within a year.

No one disputes that foreclosures dominate Florida’s dockets and that something needs to be done to streamline a complex and emotionally wrenching process. But lawyers representing troubled borrowers contend that many of the retired judges called in from the sidelines to oversee these matters are so focused on cutting the caseload that they are unfairly favoring financial institutions at the expense of homeowners.

Lawyers say judges are simply ignoring problematic or contradictory evidence and awarding the right to foreclose to institutions that have yet to prove they own the properties in question.

“Now you show up and you get whatever judge is on the schedule and they have not looked at the file — they don’t even look at the motions,” says April Charney, a lawyer who represents imperiled borrowers at Jacksonville Area Legal Aid. “You get a five-minute hearing. It’s a factory.”

But Victor Tobin, chief judge in the 17th Judicial Circuit, which includes Broward County, defended the effort. “There are more assets devoted to those three foreclosure divisions in Broward than to any other division in the building in terms of case managers and that sort of thing to help the general public,” he said. “The people who come get fully, fully heard.”

In any event, huge numbers of cases are being handled. In an article last week in The Florida Bar News, Belvin Perry Jr., chief judge for the state’s Ninth Judicial Circuit, said that during July, 1,319 cases had been closed by three senior judges in the district’s two counties, Orange and Osceola.

Florida’s foreclosure mess is made murkier by what analysts and lawyers involved in the process say are questionable practices by some law firms that are representing banks. Such tactics, these people say, have drawn out the process significantly, making it extremely lucrative for the lawyers and more draining for troubled homeowners.

Doctored or dubious records presented in court as proof of a bank’s ownership have become such a problem that Bill McCollum, the Florida attorney general, announced last month that his office was investigating the state’s three largest foreclosure law firms representing lenders.

“Thousands of final judgments of foreclosure against Florida homeowners may have been the result of the allegedly improper actions of these law firms,” said Mr. McCollum in an interview. “We’ve had so many complaints that I am confident there is a great deal of fraud here.”

To be sure, adjudicating foreclosure cases is difficult, complicated by multiple transfers of mortgages and notes when a loan is sold, bewildering paperwork submitted by loan servicers and shoddy record-keeping by the many institutions that touched the mortgages during the byzantine securitization process that fueled the housing boom.

Nevertheless, Florida law requires that before a financial institution can foreclose on a borrower, it must prove to the court that it actually has the standing to do so. In other words, it has to show that it is truly the owner. And this is done by demonstrating ownership of the note underlying the mortgage.

Enlarge This Image

The Waters case offers an example of how wrong things can go in complex foreclosure cases.

While AmTrust, a failed Ohio bank that is now a division of New York Community Bank, said it owned the note and could foreclose, Mr. Waters’s lawyer produced documents showing that Fannie Mae, the taxpayer-owned mortgage finance giant, was really the owner.

In spite of the conflicting evidence, Aaron Bowden, the retired judge overseeing the case, made a summary judgment on Aug. 3, ruling that the property should go back to AmTrust.

Mr. Bowden did not return phone calls seeking comment.

Chip Parker, managing partner at Parker & DuFresne in Jacksonville, which represents Mr. Waters, said: “The threshold issue in any foreclosure case is who has the right to foreclose. We presented evidence to the judge that Fannie Mae owns the note and mortgage, and yet the judge ignored this crucial evidence.”

Mr. Parker is concerned that some homeowners are victimized by the system. “What we are talking about is railroading homeowners through the rocket docket,” he added.

When contacted by a reporter on Thursday, a spokeswoman for Fannie Mae confirmed that it owned the note.

David Tong, the lawyer representing AmTrust in the case, declined to comment on the matter. But on Friday, he did an about-face, filing papers with the court acknowledging that Fannie Mae owns the note.

Clearing the Backlog

Florida law requires that banks argue their cases before a judge if they want to recover property from borrowers in default, and 471,000 such cases were pending in Florida at the end of July, according to the Florida State Courts administration.

Setting up discrete foreclosure courts statewide was seen as a way to help deal with the issue; consumer law experts say they aren’t aware of any other state that has set up a temporary court to work down such a backlog.

But it is paradoxical, say lawyers representing homeowners in the cases, that Florida’s attorney general acknowledges problems in the cases while retired judges, intent on reducing caseloads, seem unconcerned about those same problems — like flaws in the banks’ documentation of ownership.

“The most shocking thing of all is the A.G.’s office understands the problem and yet the court system turns a blind eye to the fact that mortgage servicers are the problem,” says Margery Golant, a lawyer in South Florida and a former executive at Ocwen, a large mortgage servicing company. “In the meantime, neighborhoods are being destroyed, homeowners’ associations are being destroyed, and the tax base is being clobbered.”

Steven P. Combs, a lawyer at Combs, Greene, McLester, who formerly was general counsel to the Fourth Judicial Circuit as well as a family law magistrate, says the entire process may be unconstitutional.

The Florida Supreme Court has consistently recognized the need to hire retired judges on a temporary basis, Mr. Combs said, and has ruled that such a “temporary” use is constitutional.

But because the retired judges are being given foreclosure assignments “repeatedly and consecutively” to the point of usurping the elected judges’ jurisdiction over all residential foreclosure cases, he said, their use may not qualify as temporary and could thus violate the Florida constitution.

The fact that these judges are being paid to reduce the court’s case load creates a perception among homeowners that the judges have a financial interest in dispensing cases prematurely, Mr. Combs said, creating a potential bias against borrowers and possibly violating their right to due process.

He pointed to a recent case in Broward County in which a retired judge refused to postpone a borrower’s foreclosure sale even though the bank had agreed to it. The judge stated that she was there to “dispose of cases.”

“If you are an individual whose house is being foreclosed and you hear these judges are being paid to clean out the backlog, under a realistic appraisal of human tendencies, do you think that the average judge would be biased in favor of prematurely terminating your case to clean out the backlog?” Mr. Combs asked.

J. Thomas McGrady, chief judge in the Sixth Judicial Circuit, said in a press release announcing the program: “We have to clear these cases because of the negative impact they are having on other civil litigation. The real estate crisis has placed a tremendous burden on our judges, and people with other types of pending litigation are also entitled to their day in court.”

Who Owns the Notes?

A foreclosure crisis that has forced millions of delinquent borrowers from their homes across Florida and elsewhere has also created enormous profits for the law firms and foreclosure servicers that represent banks and financial services in these actions.

Among the busiest of these firms are the three under investigation by Florida’s attorney general: the Law Offices of Marshall C. Watson; Shapiro & Fishman; and the Law Offices of David J. Stern.

“These law firms appear to be mills,” says Mr. McCollum. “They submit false documents, fabricate the documents, or the documents actually don’t exist. They wanted to speed the process up because the faster they get the foreclosures done the better.”

But Mr. Stern said: “I can’t speak for the other firms, but I can assure you there has not been submission of fraudulent documents. We feel a lot of it is politically motivated. We have done nothing wrong and are going to cooperate fully.”

Lawyers for the other two firms also disputed the attorney general’s contentions, maintaining that they work diligently on behalf of their clients.

Borrowers’ lawyers say they confront dubious practices, often involving false documentation “proving” who owns the note on a given property.

Typically, they say, this involves questionable affidavits asserting ownership of a note because the actual document has been lost or cannot be produced. Because the affidavits are often signed by bank representatives who have a stake in the outcome, they should not be allowed as evidence, borrowers’ lawyers say.

Yet they routinely are introduced as evidence; the Waters case involves such an affidavit signed by an AmTrust official.

The problem of who owns the note is a result of the process of bundling home loans into securities and selling them to investors — a common practice in the housing boom. This meant that notes documenting ownership on a property were repeatedly transferred, blurring the identity of exactly who controlled the note.

Documents showing that a note has been assigned to a foreclosing bank are often dated after a foreclosure, meaning that the bank bringing the case may not have the right to foreclose.

Other questions arise involving documents with improper notary stamps and wildly different signatures on legal papers supposedly prepared by the same person, borrowers’ lawyers say.

In a case in May 2009, Thomas E. Ice, a defense lawyer at Ice Legal in Royal Palm Beach, Fla., took the deposition of Cheryl Samons, an operations manager at the David J. Stern law firm. He asked her about instances at the firm of backdating the assignment of mortgages to allow foreclosures to go forward.

Mr. Ice and his wife, Ariane, who works with him, had found problems with notary stamps on mortgage assignments. “Many assignments of mortgages were signed and notarized with a stamp that had not been issued at the time of the signing, reflecting that the assignment was backdated,” Mr. Ice says.

In her court deposition with Mr. Ice, Ms. Samons testified that she was both an executive of the entity that handles the mortgage transfers and an officer at the Stern firm. Mr. Ice says that this creates a conflict of interest because clients of the Stern firm — most of the nation’s major banks — benefit from the transfer.

The law firm helps its own clients by “creating an illusion that the signing took place before and it did not,” says Mr. Ice.

Mr. Stern attributed any backdating to sloppiness on the part of paralegals and said that it had since been corrected.

As for Ms. Samons’s dual roles at the mortgage transfer registry and the law firm, he responded that, “We believe it is a solid practice.”

Ms. Samons did not return phone calls seeking comment.

Another popular practice that ties up courts’ calendars occurs after a foreclosure is granted and the property is scheduled to be returned to the bank. As ownership shifts from borrower to bank, so do all the obligations associated with it, like payment of homeowners’ association dues.

But few banks want to pay these bills, so firms representing them move to delay the final step in the process by canceling the sale of a foreclosed property at the last minute, court officials say. This does not require the banks to restart the foreclosure process, but it keeps the property in the hands of the borrower, who remains responsible for maintenance and association dues.

Earlier this year, Jennifer D. Bailey, administrative judge in Miami-Dade County, said such cancellations were occurring in 55 percent of cases in her district. In July, she instituted new rules to reduce last-minute cancellations, including a requirement that a judge hear the reason.

“There was huge volume to start with and then with this extra bogus stuff going on, the courts were cross-eyed from it,” says Ms. Golant. “There is a certain amount of truth to the gridlock, but the reason for the gridlock is the foreclosure firms are practically running the courtrooms.”

One Firm, Many Cases

The lawyer most closely identified with Florida’s foreclosure morass is David J. Stern. He is something of a mystery man within the foreclosure world; it is impossible to reach him by phone since his name is not in the firm’s voice-mail directory and, until recently, there were no publicly available photographs of him.

Several prominent borrowers’ lawyers who have litigated against his firm say they have never met him.

Operating out of a gleaming eight-story office building in Plantation, Fla., Mr. Stern, 50, has come a long way from the South Texas College of Law, from which he graduated in 1986. He spent his early career as a quality-control lawyer for Gerald Shapiro, a lawyer who represented mortgage lenders. He opened his own firm in 1994; Fannie Mae voted him attorney of the year in 1998.

Mr. Stern’s company, which now includes a law firm and ancillary foreclosure support businesses, employs more than 900 people. The firm filed 70,382 foreclosure cases last year.

Critics say the Stern firm has been able to handle this high volume because its lawyers frequently refuse to work with borrowers and are very aggressive about pushing cases through the courts even when there are questions about the documentation.

Mr. Stern sees it differently. “I refer to us as an efficient law firm with a specialization in mortgage lending,”’ he responded. “Should I feel ashamed that I have built a successful practice?” he asked. “No one references how committed I am, how I built my firm and how I work 20 hours a day.”

But some question the thoroughness of the firm’s work. Bill Warner, a private investigator in Sarasota, said the Stern firm filed a foreclosure suit against him on behalf of Deutsche Bank Financial Trust in January 2009. But the bank did not own the property and the suit erred by including in its claims a federal tax lien on another person with the same name but a different Social Security number, Mr. Warner said.

Mr. Warner’s mortgage was actually owned by Countrywide, which had sold it to Wells Fargo. “I fought them myself for a year and a half,” he recalls. “In the meantime, we did a loan modification with Wells Fargo but Mr. Stern’s firm pursued the foreclosure on the property anyway.”

Last May, Mr. Warner filed a motion to dismiss the case, alleging submission of a fraudulent document because Deutsche Bank was not owner of the note. He filed another motion questioning the credibility of the Stern firm and the lawyer on the case, he said. On June 14, Deutsche Bank withdrew the case.

Earlier this year Mr. Stern, who has profited handsomely from the foreclosure trade, sold the part of his operation that provides support services for his firm’s foreclosure work — DJS Processing — to a public company called the Chardan 2008 China Acquisition Corporation. The processing company and affiliates generated revenue of $260 million in 2009, financial filings show.

Brian Foley, a compensation consultant in White Plains, concluded that Mr. Stern made $17.8 million in 2008, including $12.64 million in compensation and nonrecurring benefits of $4.36 million. In the deal with Chardan, Mr. Stern and his affiliates were paid $93.5 million: $58.5 million in cash and $35 million after the transaction closed, according to government filings. In addition, Mr. Stern got a promissory note for $52.49 million to be paid out over the next couple of years.

In recent years, Mr. Stern and his wife, Jeanine, have bought nearly $60 million in real estate, mostly in Florida, property records show. Their Mediterranean-style home on Harborage Isle Drive, in a gated community in Fort Lauderdale, faces water on two sides and cost almost $14 million. Not far away, in Hillsboro Beach, the Sterns bought two waterfront properties for $17 million.

Mr. Stern also spent $6.8 million last year on a 9,273-square-foot apartment at the Castillo Grand Residences in Fort Lauderdale, part of a Ritz-Carlton complex. He and his wife own two homes in Beaver Creek, Colo.; one was purchased in 2001 for $4.975 million, and another bought in 2007 for $14.2 million.

His automobile collection may be worth $3 million, auto experts said; it includes a 2008 Bugatti, multiple Ferraris, Porsches and Mercedes and a Cadillac.

This being Florida, Mr. Stern also collects boats. A 108-foot Mangusta yacht, Lady J, is for sale at $5.9 million, Web postings show. It was replaced by a 130-foot yacht that cost about $20 million, according to an acquaintance who requested anonymity over concerns about Mr. Stern’s influence in the community.

In a nod to his foreclosure work, according to the acquaintance, Mr. Stern mused about possibly naming the larger yacht Su Casa Es Mi Casa — “Your House Is My House.” But his wife and others cautioned against it, according to this acquaintance, and Mr. Stern named the boat “Misunderstood.” Mr. Stern denies that he considered the “Su Casa Es Mi Casa” name.

Resigned to Moving

While Rodney Waters and Terri Reese are resigned to leaving their home and moving their family into a rental, they still face another problem.

Under Florida law, a lender may pursue Mr. Waters for the difference between what it says he owes on the house and what it will fetch in a sale. Thanks to foreclosure fees and other charges, he owes almost double the $138,500 received in February by the seller of a neighboring house.

Included in the amount that Mr. Waters owes is almost $10,000 in fees generated by AmTrust’s lawyers in the case. Mr. Bowden, the retired judge overseeing the case, ordered Mr. Waters to pay the fees.

His lawyer, Mr. Parker, had hoped to persuade the owner of the note to offer a new loan to his client in a smaller amount to reflect the reduced value in the property. He argued that this would be a better outcome for the lender and the borrower, since a foreclosure usually ends up costing a lender far more than does a principal write-down that leaves the borrower in the home.

But with the judge ruling in favor of the lender, such a deal is unlikely. Mr. Parker filed an appeal late last week, but Mr. Waters may have to file for bankruptcy to stop the foreclosure sale.

[NeBuKaTnEzZaR]

Par Jean Christophe Bataille

L'essoufflement de l'économie américaine fait craindre une nouvelle baisse du PIB des pays de l'OCDE pour les trimestres à venir. La croissance est faible un peu partout en occident et les marchés ont repris la direction du sud. Si le scénario de double dip est possible, quelle va être l'évolution des monnaies occidentales ? Vont-elle se valoriser dans le cadre d'une déflation ou poursuivre leur dévalorisation par l'inflation. L'inflation régne en maitre depuis 50 ans dans les pays développés sauf au Japon. Nous pensons que la tendance à la contraction de la masse monétaire qui pourrait survenir aux USA en cas de nouveau plongeon de l'activité ne peut être que de courte durée. Quatre raisons essentielles :

1. Le monde est inflationniste

Depuis la disparition de l'étalon or et l'avènement des réserves fractionnaires, la monnaie perd constamment de sa valeur. Les gains de productivité, l'apport des coûts de production très bas des émergents ces dix dernières années, l'importante crise de l'octroi du crédit et la chute de la demande de 2008 n'ont pas pu interrompre ce phénomène. Seul un retour à un système monétaire à réserves pleines pourrait bloquer cette tendance. Je renvoie une fois de plus mes lecteurs à cet article écrit l'an dernier : Le monde est inflationniste.

2. Le taux d'épargne et le deleveraging ont un effet limité

En 2010, les prix à la consommation ne baissent toujours pas malgré l'important deleveraging à l'oeuvre dans certains pays occidentaux comme les USA, l'Angleterre ou encore l'Espagne. L'Angleterre au contraire souffre d'une inflation trop importante. La formidable injection de monnaie réalisée par les banques centrales et la bonne tenue des pays émergents désormais dynamisés par leur consommation intérieure et leur capacité à financer leur croissance en fond propre constituent bien sûr des supports évidents à cette stabilité des prix.

Certains analystes comme ceux de Natexis pensent que l'augmentation du taux d'épargne des ménages et des entreprises pourrait alimenter une possible déflation. Je n'y crois pas pour deux raisons :

- La montée du taux d'épargne des ménages dont souffre l'occident n'affecte en aucune façon les pays émergents qui au contraire vont tendanciellement dans le sens d'une diminution de leur épargne.

- L'augmentation du taux d'épargne des entreprises génére, quant à elle, un effet inverse sur les prix car les industriels en freinant leurs investissements organisent les sous-capacités de production à venir. Toutes les informations que je recueille sur le terrain dans l'industrie se recoupent : pour maintenir leurs prix, les industriels du monde entier cultivent la pénurie en terme de capacité et n'investissent pas dans leur appareil de production si ce n'est pour améliorer leur productivité. Les entreprises privilégient donc leurs marges en ne cherchant pas à augmenter leurs volumes de vente. L'objectif est évident : ne pas pas être en surpacité en cas de baisse inattendue de la demande. Les leçons de la crise de 2008 ont porté … Ce phénomène est évident dans le domaine du pétrole où l'investissement diminue comme peau de chagrin mais il touche désormais de nombreux secteurs économiques comme celui de l'electronique. Coté clients, la demande augmente fortement chez les émergents même si elle stagne chez les occidentaux et, au global, reste en croissance. Les surcapacités de production avancées par nombres d'analystes pour justifier une possible future baisse des prix sont donc en train de fondre comme neige au soleil.

3. L'inflation importée est inéluctable.

Nul doute pour moi que l'augmentation des coûts de main-d'oeuvre chez les émergents et la montée du prix des matières premières vont arriver massivement en occident par cargos interposés. Le glas de la stabilité des prix sonnera le jour où le pétrole commencera son ascension. Les salaires occidentaux suivront obligatoirement la montée des indices officiels des prix à la consommation par une indexation à laquelle les employeurs ne pourront pas se dérober, quel que soit le taux de chomage.

Dans les pays qui, comme la France, ne sont pas soumis à un fort deleveraging, les prix de l'immobilier, même s'il sont susceptibles de subir une brève correction en cas de double dip, devraient continuer à augmenter en monnaie courante, protégeant ainsi partiellement le capital, mais ils devraient, à terme, baisser en monnaie constante pour réintégrer sur le très long terme le canal de Friggit.

4. La fuite devant la monnaie

L'issue programmée de l'augmentation des prix par la montée du coûts des salaires et des matières premières pourrait être accélérée par un autre phénomène beaucoup plus dangereux celui-là : la fuite devant la monnaie. Un certain nombre d'initiés savent aujourd'hui que l'émission massive de monnaie de ces dernières années a dilué de façon considérable la valeur de celle-ci. Ce raisonnement simple est pour l'instant porté par quelques investisseurs qui essaient de se prémunir de cette dévalorisation par la vente d'actifs monétaires et l'achat de biens tangibles : depuis 2003, achat d'or physique ou papier, de matières premières et depuis peu, achat de biens immobiliers cash avec des fonds auparavant placés en euros ou en obligations. Cette fuite du cash vers les biens tangibles de peur de voir la monnaie se dévaloriser pourrait gagner la masse des épargnants qui prendraient conscience à leur tour de la récente accélération du délitement des monnaies. L'effet mécanique de cette perte de confiance serait de faire monter le prix de tous les biens puis ceux des produits de consommation courante.

Nous n'en sommes pas là, mais l'augmentation récente des prix de l'immobilier en France correspond à une montée en puissance de ce phénomène de défiance monétaire.

[h16]

Deux niouzes intéressantes :

a/ le libor tombe, les prêts interbancaires sont complètement gelés, et une banque, toute seule dans son coin, n'arrive pas à obtenir une petite avance rikiki de 100 millions d'€ (ce qui reste une faible somme dans ce contexte). On se demande de quelle banque il s'agit. Ça pue un peu pour elle, non ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sole-euro…-libor-funding-

b/ les stress-tests étant une fraude, on ne sera pas étonné d'apprendre que le spread sur les bons du trésor irlandais augmentent dangereusement. Après la Grèce, l'Irlande ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/domino-2-ireland-set-topple

[vincponcet]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405…us_mostpop_read

Stimulating demand in the U.S. economy, while rebalancing the composition of demand and production in the desired directions, requires a much lower Federal Funds target rate than is feasible with the zlb (zero lower bound)in place.

To restore monetary policy effectiveness in a low interest rate environment when confronted with deflationary or contractionary shocks, it is necessary to get rid of the zlb completely. This can be done in three ways: abolishing currency, taxing currency and ending the fixed exchange rate between currency and bank reserves with the Fed. All three are unorthodox. The third is unorthodox and innovative. All three are conceptually simple. The first and third are administratively easy to implement.

The first method does away with currency completely. This has the additional benefit of inconveniencing the main users of currency—operators in the grey, black and outright criminal economies. Adequate substitutes for the legitimate uses of currency, on which positive or negative interest could be paid, are available.

The second approach, proposed by Gesell, is to tax currency by making it subject to an expiration date. Currency would have to be "stamped" periodically by the Fed to keep it current. When done so, interest (positive or negative) is received or paid.

The third method ends the fixed exchange rate (set at one) between dollar deposits with the Fed (reserves) and dollar bills. There could be a currency reform first. All existing dollar bills and coin would be converted by a certain date and at a fixed exchange rate into a new currency called, say, the rallod. Reserves at the Fed would continue to be denominated in dollars. As long as the Federal Funds target rate is positive or zero, the Fed would maintain the fixed exchange rate between the dollar and the rallod.

When the Fed wants to set the Federal Funds target rate at minus five per cent, say, it would set the forward exchange rate between the dollar and the rallod, the number of dollars that have to be paid today to receive one rallod tomorrow, at five per cent below the spot exchange rate—the number of dollars paid today for one rallod delivered today. That way, the rate of return, expressed in a common unit, on dollar reserves is the same as on rallod currency.

For the dollar interest rate to remain the relevant one, the dollar has to remain the unit of account for setting prices and wages. This can be encouraged by the government continuing to denominate all of its contracts in dollars, including the invoicing and payment of taxes and benefits. Imposing the legal restriction that checkable deposits and other private means of payment cannot be denominated in rallod would help.

In the other major industrial countries too (the euro area, Japan and the U.K.), monetary policy is constrained by the zlb. Conventional fiscal expansion with government debt-financed deficit increases would be ineffective or infeasible because of fiscal unsustainability. Like the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England therefore should lobby for the legislation necessary to eliminate the zlb. The euro area and Japan, which don't suffer from deficient saving rates or undesirable current account deficits, could in addition stimulate consumption through helicopter drops of money—base money-financed fiscal stimuli.

All three methods for eliminating the zlb, although administratively feasible and conceptually simple, are innovative and unorthodox. Central banks are conservative. The mere fact that something has not been done before often is sufficient grounds for not doing it now. The cost of rejecting institutional innovation to remove the zlb could, however, be high: a material risk of continued deficient aggregate demand, persistent deflation and, in the U.S. and the U.K., unnecessary conflict between short-term stabilization and long-term sustainability and rebalancing.

—Willem Buiter is chief economist for Citi.

Si ce n'est pas du lobbying de banquiers pour avoir encore plus accès au privilège, je me demande bien ce que c'est.

Accessoirement, c'est un programme de type zimbabwe qu'il défend.

[Librekom]

b/ les stress-tests étant une fraude, on ne sera pas étonné d'apprendre que le spread sur les bons du trésor irlandais augmentent dangereusement. Après la Grèce, l'Irlande ?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/domino-2-ireland-set-topple

Ah non hein !

[Librekom]

bon, j'ai mon compte chez AIB, je sais, c'est mal, je veux changer. Quelqu'un a une recommandation ?

Celles que je connais de nom et qui proposent des tarifs sympas >

Ulster Bank

Permanent TSB

Barclay Bank

celles dont je ne veux plus entendre parler >

Bank of Ireland

Allied Irish Bank (plus connue sous le nom de AIB)

Celles que je ne connais pas >

Irish Nationwide

Nationwide UK Ireland

Anglo Irish Bank

An Post (je suppose que c;est la poste, mais je n'en suis pas certain)

National Irish Bank

Rabo Bank

celle qui me fait peur vu son histoire recente >

Northern Rock Ireland

un idee, un conseil ???

[Chevalier]

Sous ton matelas c'est moins risqué.

édit : Quoique vu ce que tu fais dessus…

[Mobius]

Anglo Irish Bank

Aglon Irish nope

Rabo Bank c'est une banque quasi-etatique hollandaise, dans le top 5 des banques les plus solides du monde (ca vaux ce que ca vaux ^^) avec les landesbanks allemandes

[Librekom]

Sous ton matelas c'est moins risqué.

édit : Quoique vu ce que tu fais dessus…

Pas possible, j'ai besoin d'un compte et je dois meme y laisser des sous dessus et puis j;aime cette idee qu;il soit facilement accessible ou que je sois.

[neuneu2k]

J'aurai tendence a taper dans rabobank, c'est une too big to fail, par contre, c'est une banque cooperative, donc ca sens un peu mauvais pour un objectiviste pur et dur, tu risque d'etre excommunié par certains

[Librekom]

J'aurai tendence a taper dans rabobank, c'est une too big to fail, par contre, c'est une banque cooperative, donc ca sens un peu mauvais pour un objectiviste pur et dur, tu risque d'etre excommunié par certains

En bonne individualiste, je cherche mon interet, pas a sauver le monde ! Donc si c'est une banque fiable, j'y cours.

[john_ross]

En bonne individualiste, je cherche mon interet, pas a sauver le monde ! Donc si c'est une banque fiable, j'y cours.

Tu es un(e) trans librekom?

Il va falloir lancer un fil transphobie doit-on rester neutre?

[Librekom]

mais qu'est ce que t'es vulgaire toi, t'as grandi ou ?

[vincponcet]

Oui, c'est la raison pour laquelle je suis convaincu que la 'solution' sera l'inflation et non la faillite, il faut juste que les allemands réalisent qu'ils se sont mariés a l'Europe, pour le meilleur… et pour le pire.

Bien entendu, l’inflation n’est pas une solution seule, la seule solution durable c’est l’équilibre des budgets, mais l’inflation est un traitement de choc qui permet d’éliminer vite la charge de la dette et qui, cumulé a un équilibre budgétaire, est probablement la moins pire des solutions.

Il y a cette idée qui tourne comme quoi inflater pour réduire le poids de sa dette est une solutions viable, mais j'ai vu un article qui montre empiriquement qu'inflation va plutôt avec défaut et dépression que le contraire.

L'explication en serait que l'Etat qui est amené à faire cela est plutôt un Etat en déficit permanent, càd qu'il a besoin de toujours emprunter, la France est dans ce cas.

Si il inflate, son taux d'emprunt va exploser et il se tire une balle dans le pied pour ses nouveaux emprunts.

à noter que la France emprunte environ toutes les semaines. Une hausse importante des taux aurait un impact rapide.

[h16]

Il y a cette idée qui tourne comme quoi inflater pour réduire le poids de sa dette est une solutions viable, mais j'ai vu un article qui montre empiriquement qu'inflation va plutôt avec défaut et dépression que le contraire.

L'explication en serait que l'Etat qui est amené à faire cela est plutôt un Etat en déficit permanent, càd qu'il a besoin de toujours emprunter, la France est dans ce cas.

Si il inflate, son taux d'emprunt va exploser et il se tire une balle dans le pied pour ses nouveaux emprunts.

à noter que la France emprunte environ toutes les semaines. Une hausse importante des taux aurait un impact rapide.

Qu'elle inflate ou pas, on va se retrouver dans une situation tendue un de ces quatre.

[vincponcet]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405…us_mostpop_read

Si ce n'est pas du lobbying de banquiers pour avoir encore plus accès au privilège, je me demande bien ce que c'est.

Accessoirement, c'est un programme de type zimbabwe qu'il défend.

à noter que willem buiter est un ancien du board de la bank of england et qu'il tenait les mêmes propos en mai, et il était déjà chief economist de citi depuis novembre 2009

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/05/20…dbye-banknotes/

Citi l'a donc embauché pour faire ce lobbying.

commentaire sur le blog du FT sur l'article de buiter dans WSJ

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/09/10…-tax-banknotes/

[neuneu2k]

Il y a cette idée qui tourne comme quoi inflater pour réduire le poids de sa dette est une solutions viable, mais j'ai vu un article qui montre empiriquement qu'inflation va plutôt avec défaut et dépression que le contraire.

L'explication en serait que l'Etat qui est amené à faire cela est plutôt un Etat en déficit permanent, càd qu'il a besoin de toujours emprunter, la France est dans ce cas.

Si il inflate, son taux d'emprunt va exploser et il se tire une balle dans le pied pour ses nouveaux emprunts.

à noter que la France emprunte environ toutes les semaines. Une hausse importante des taux aurait un impact rapide.

Oui, d'ou l'inflation n'a de sens qu'une fois que l'état a des difficultés a lever les fonds, si il ne peut plus emprunter, ou très peu, il a tout intérêt a diminuer la charge de la dette, bien entendu, ça n'a de sens que dans une optique de réduction des dépenses publiques, mais ça permet de le faire avec nettement moins de douleur si la charge de la dette est réduite.

[vincponcet]

Oui, d'ou l'inflation n'a de sens qu'une fois que l'état a des difficultés a lever les fonds, si il ne peut plus emprunter, ou très peu, il a tout intérêt a diminuer la charge de la dette, bien entendu, ça n'a de sens que dans une optique de réduction des dépenses publiques, mais ça permet de le faire avec nettement moins de douleur si la charge de la dette est réduite.

Mais le cas inflation + réduction des dépenses existe assez peu historiquement.

L'Etat qui est assez lache/fourbe pour utiliser l'inflation a peu de chances d'être dans le même temps assez vertueux pour réduire ses dépenses.

[h16]

http://www.lefigaro.fr/conjoncture/2010/09…rio-du-pire.php

Franchement, l'idée qu'un état puisse faire défaut est complètement ahurissante. Du jamais vu. Im-pos-si-ble. Vraiment.

Mais bon, à tout hasard, on va se pencher sur cette éventualité.

[Nadaël]

Je commence la lecture de l'article et je tombe sur

Les marchés pourraient bien perdrent

Ri-Di-Cule

[h16]

Oui, aussi.

[Yul]

Oui, aussi.

je suis certain qu'une inflation bien vilaine qui revient à écoper sans réparer la voie d'eau sera présentée dans les media et par des économistes officiels (et sans doute perçu) comme un geste d'indépendance courageux face à ces marchés-financiers-qui-nous-ont-mis-dans-leur-crise et qui sont de toute façon des sales riches, et que c'est pas si grave, que ça booste l'économie, etc… tandis qu'aucune réforme ne sera faite dans le bon sens et que le niveau de vie chutera. Et comme c'est toujours de la faute des multinationales/riches/turbo-libéraux, l'appauvrissement sera mis sur le compte des financiers-pas-citoyens-égoïstes qui jouent pas le jeu. Jusqu'à ce que le fruit soit mûr pour les extrémistes, dont le terrain aura été bien préparé.