China’s Big Population Won’t Always Be an Advantage

[José]

China’s population won’t always be the engine of growth that it is now, because the country’s fast-rising proportion of elderly people eventually will drag down the economy, says historian Niall Ferguson in the Los Angeles Times. While China’s population today is relatively young, by the middle of the century it is set to become one of the world’s grayest societies. Today, less than 8% of China’s population is 65 or older. By 2050, that proportion will rise to 24%, compared with Europe’s 28% and 21% in the U.S. In sub-Saharan Africa, the proportion of elderly individuals will rise to under 6% from 3% now.

Moreover, at 1.3 billion, China’s population is impressive now, but will be less so in the future. According to U.N. projections, most of the world’s total population increase from 6.5 billion today to 9.2 billion in 2050 will come from sub-Saharan Africa and the Muslim world. India’s population is expected to overtake China’s in 2025. China, whose so-called one-child policy has led to a steep decline in the country’s birth rate in the past several decades, will contribute only 4% of the rise in the world’s population up to 2050.

A high proportion of elderly people generally is thought to crimp economic growth. Certainly, it creates a higher tax burden for workers, who must pay to keep retirees alive. The impact of an aging population on financial markets is more difficult to predict, partly because it depends to what extent retirees save their money or spend it.

Prof. Ferguson, who teaches history and economics at Harvard University, speculates that China might end up aligning itself geopolitically with other countries with aging populations, including the U.S. and European nations. The “Old World” will be made up of countries with high tax rates aimed at ever smaller workforces. Meanwhile, the “Young World” in Africa and India will be marked by youthful unrest and dynamism. — Robin Moroney

http://blogs.wsj.com/informedreader/2007/1…e-an-advantage/

[Jesrad]

Intéressant. Ils vivraient donc leur propre période de Baby-boom. Auront-ils leur propre "Mai 68" avec soixante ans de retard ?

[Nick de Cusa]

Oui.

Bien d'accord avec l'auteur: l'Inde va ensuite exploser la Chine en population, en étant plus jeune et plus fertile. Après, ça sera l'Afrique, dont les problèmes sanitaires, si terribles qu'ils soient, se règleront un jour.

Les gens qu'émeuvent l'éveil de la Chine n'ont pas fini de pleurer: on a encore au moins deux phénomènes de même ampleur à venir (disclaimer: à moins de cataclysmes indépendants de ma volonté, qu'on ne saurait prévoir).

[Punu]

Et ce jour-là, l'Occident a intérêt à toujours avoir la supériorité militaire.

[Nick de Cusa]

Les rapports de forces vont évoluer. Il convient en effet d'en être conscient, et d'évaluer les risques qui vont avec.

[Invité jabial]

Et ce jour-là, l'Occident a intérêt à toujours avoir la supériorité militaire.

Bof. Il suffit à l'Occident d'être capable de faire assez de dégâts pour décourager l'attaque. Je pense que la guerre ouverte entre grandes puissances est passée de mode.