Les Etats-unis Plus à Gauche

[Taranne]

HE MYTH OF THE PERMANENT MAJORITY….The Pew survey I linked to yesterday showed some pretty stunning reversals for the Republican Party, and I think it's worth taking a minute to deconstruct what the numbers show. The party ID catastrophe, in which Republicans have plummeted from a 43-43 tie in 2002 to a 50-35 deficit this year, obviously happened on George Bush's watch. He's the least liked president among moderates and young people in over a generation. But the survey also shows something more fundamental: a loss of sympathy for conservative positions, a trend that began well before George Bush ever set foot in the Oval Office.

In a nutshell, what I think happened is this: beginning in the early 90s the Republican Party hitched its wagon to two things: tax cuts and culture war politics. In the short term this worked nicely: people like low taxes and talk radio was pretty successful at keeping cultural conservatives in a constant state of inchoate outrage. George Bush and Karl Rove were this strategy's ultimate practitioners, and the attacks of 9/11, which they treated as a culture war issue, kept the GOP successful through the first part of this decade.

But in the long term this strategy has been a disaster. Even the wingiest of wingnuts understands that you can't keep cutting taxes forever, and after 2003 the tax cut jihad simply ran out of steam. There were no more taxes to cut. On the culture war side, as the Pew charts confirm, the problem is that America is getting slowly more culturally liberal as time goes by. Partly this is a generational thing and partly it's just a continuation of the same slow march of social tolerance that's been a hallmark of the past half century. Every year there's one or two percent more of the country that doesn't hate gays, doesn't want to ban abortion, and would just as soon see the Ten Commandments stay in church.

Both of these trends are only going to get worse for the GOP. As entitlement benefits grow, taxes are going to have to go up. Everyone knows there's no way around this, and insisting otherwise will increasingly mark you as a fringe crackpot. Likewise, as culture war issues slowly become the province of a dwindling band of senior citizens and dead-end homophobes, arguing about gays in the military will seem about as relevant as attacking the tin trust.

The GOP isn't dead, and Democratic victories in future years are hardly assured. But there's not much question that Republicans are going to have to find a new schtick. The combination of Grover Norquist and James Dobson had its day, but that day is fading fast. If they want to stay relevant, they're going to need some new ideas.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/…7_03/010992.php

[h16]

But in the long term this strategy has been a disaster. Even the wingiest of wingnuts understands that you can't keep cutting taxes forever, and after 2003 the tax cut jihad simply ran out of steam. There were no more taxes to cut. On the culture war side, as the Pew charts confirm, the problem is that America is getting slowly more culturally liberal as time goes by. Partly this is a generational thing and partly it's just a continuation of the same slow march of social tolerance that's been a hallmark of the past half century. Every year there's one or two percent more of the country that doesn't hate gays, doesn't want to ban abortion, and would just as soon see the Ten Commandments stay in church.

Foôormidable. Puissante analyse.

[Sous-Commandant Marco]

Ce que Kevin Drum ne dit pas, c'est que le parti républicain, en reniant dans la pratique ses positions théoriques, est probablement responsable de cette évolution.

[Rincevent]

@ h16 : +1.

Sinon, il n'est pas innocent que certains néoconservateurs et certains "republitarians" commencent à faire passer l'idée d'une alliance avec les démocrates.

[Taranne]

@ h16 : +1.

Sinon, il n'est pas innocent que certains néoconservateurs et certains "republitarians" commencent à faire passer l'idée d'une alliance avec les démocrates.

Dans le cas d'un Eugene Volohh elle est déjà largement consommée.

[Nico]

Il ne manquerait plus que les USA deviennent une France bis, ou même une UE bis.

Mais où irons donc vivre les ultralibéraux pinochétistes très conservateurs que nous sommes tous ?

[actsofvolition]

L'augmentation de support pour la gauche americain est lié à la guerre en Irak et les depenses publiques de l'administration Bush (rejetés par une population qui restent hostile à l'intervention de l'etat dans leur vies quotidiennes). Les liberaux americains ont votés democrates, pas parce qu'ils sont d'accord avec la politique socialiste de Clinton/Obama etc. mais parce qu'ils aimeraient voir une opposition credible pour opposer le gouvernment actuel. Dans le cas où les democrates gagnent la presidentielle 2008, on verra l'inverse dans les legislatives qui suivent.

"Partly this is a generational thing and partly it's just a continuation of the same slow march of social tolerance that's been a hallmark of the past half century. Every year there's one or two percent more of the country that doesn't hate gays, doesn't want to ban abortion, and would just as soon see the Ten Commandments stay in church."

Ce qui n'explique pas pourquoi le droit-conservateur a gagné deux elections de suite. Il faut simplement regarder les referendums sur le mariage homosexual pour voir que le plupart des etats restent fortement conservateur. Ce n'est pas etonnat si on considere la tendence demographique du pays.

En tout cas, meme si on suppose que les americains deviennent plus tolerant en ce qui concerne l'homosexualité, l'immigration, l'avortemment etc., comment faire un lien avec l'support pour l'intervention de l'etat?

"As entitlement benefits grow, taxes are going to have to go up. Everyone knows there's no way around this"

N'importe quoi…Une augmentation des impots est la seule solution si on decide de ne pas reformer le systeme actuel. Ce n'est pas etonnant de voir que les seuls qui veulent garder le systeme actuel sont les democrates et les intellos Californiens comme Mr. Drum qui revent d'un America à l'européene. Son heros est FDR, for christ's sake!

[Nico]

L'augmentation de support pour la gauche americain est lié à la guerre en Irak et les depenses publiques de l'administration Bush (rejetés par une population qui restent hostile à l'intervention de l'etat dans leur vies quotidiennes). Les liberaux americains ont votés democrates, pas parce qu'ils sont d'accord avec la politique socialiste de Clinton/Obama etc. mais parce qu'ils aimeraient voir une opposition credible pour opposer le gouvernment actuel. Dans le cas où les democrates gagnent la presidentielle 2008, on verra l'inverse dans les legislatives qui suivent.

Bien sûr, d'ailleurs sur Times Square ils montraient le coût de la guerre de l'Irak pour les contribuables. On voyait les millions défiler à une vitesse incroyable.

FDR qui a d'ailleurs plombé son pays qui ne s'en est pas relevé pendant dix ans, l'échec complet du keynésianisme qu'on continue de faire étudier et en faisant les louanges par bêtise en France.

[actsofvolition]

http://www.csmonitor.com/2007/0416/p01s04-usec.html

As Americans finish their annual tax-filing flurry to meet a Tuesday deadline, it is true that tax rates are lower than they were a few years ago. But according to a different yardstick, the federal government's reach is expanding.

Slightly over half of all Americans – 52.6 percent – now receive significant income from government programs, according to an analysis by Gary Shilling, an economist in Springfield, N.J. That's up from 49.4 percent in 2000 and far above the 28.3 percent of Americans in 1950. If the trend continues, the percentage could rise within ten years to pass 55 percent, where it stood in 1980 on the eve of President's Reagan's move to scale back the size of government.

[melodius]

En tout cas, une chose est certaine; les démocrates seront heureux d'hériter de l'état soc-dem que leur laisse Bush, qui a augmenté les dépenses publiques de manière délirante, engagé des hordes de fonctionnaires (sans même parler des "public contractors"…) et généralement fait tout ce qui était en son pouvoir pour transformer les Etats-Unis en une nation européenne comme les autres.

[Nico]

Mais non, ces idiots veulent aller encore plus loin que Bush…