The great commodity-price slump

[José]

What goes up…

Oct 8th 2008

From The Economist print edition

The great commodity-price slump

AFTER climbing to record heights earlier in the year, most commodity prices have fallen sharply in recent months. As the financial crisis chokes off borrowing, investors are pulling out of commodities to release much-needed cash. Demand has slumped as the world's big economies dice with recession. Oil, which had peaked at over $151 per barrel in July, is now below $90, less than at the beginning of the year. Platinum has seen a particularly drastic drop. Demand for the precious metal, used in catalytic converters, has slumped as car sales have fallen. It is trading at just over $1,000 a troy ounce, less than half its peak. Gold is faring better. After dropping from a high of over $1,000 a troy ounce, investors are once again putting their faith (and money) in the yellow metal, seen as a safe haven in troubled times, with prices rising by some 4% on Wednesday October 8th alone.

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgaller…e=features_box4

[vincponcet]

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgaller…e=features_box4

"As the financial crisis chokes off borrowing, investors are pulling out of commodities to release much-needed cash."

Cela veux bien dire que le processus de delevaraging impacte les prix des actifs où le crédit était dirigé par les bénéficiaires de la planche à billet.

Comme les positions sont à largement à crédit, c'est en cela que je me demandais sur un autre fil si les prix ne sont pas déformés par l'action des acteurs bénéficiant de la planche à billet sur les marchés dérivés.

Tiens, au passage, les banques centrales ne veulent plus préter leurs stocks d'or aux banques

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/t…owing-gold.aspx

Cost of borrowing gold soars

Posted: October 08, 2008, 9:52 AM by Jonathan Ratner

Mining

The cost of borrowing gold has surged to its highest level since May 2001 as central banks appear unwilling to lend bullion. The one-month lease rate for gold has soared to 2.67%, jumping more than 225% since Sept. 29 and signalling that the credit crunch has spread to precious metals markets.

The risks posed by ongoing troubles at many banks and financial insitutions means central bankers are willing to sacrifice the small return they earn on lending gold in favor safe keeping their reserves at home, said Jeffrey Nichols, managing director at American Precious Metals Advisors. “The withdrawal of central banks from the gold-lending market is contributing to gold’s high volatility.”

Ross Norman, director of TheBullionDesk.com agrees that central banks may be less willing to lend in this kind of market given the high-quality financial institutions that have gone under recently. “Would you lend $100 for a $2 return?” he asked.

Higher lease rates are typical seen in markets where people are shorting precious metals like platinum. But Mr. Norman thinks this is unlikely the case with gold right now. “You’d be pretty foolhardy to be shorting the gold market with the amount of turbulence out there at the moment, even though gold is pretty high,” he said.

More likely, it is a combination of a physical shortage of gold, along with those who hold long positions allocating it to ensure that it can be recovered if the bank that holds it fails, he added.

Regardless of the cause, experts say sharply higher lease rates are a bullish sign for gold and yet another reason that it has more room to run.

[Rincevent]

http://www.economist.com/daily/chartgaller…e=features_box4

La grande chute du cours du platine est aussi dûe aux avancées de la recherche pour trouver un polymère qui puisse remplacer le métal précieux dans les pots catalytiques et d'autres applications.

[Jesrad]

À propos du prix de l'emprunt d'or: ça me fait penser que si les banques se mettent, faute de succès des garanties de l'état, à garantir leurs propres emprunts contre un stock d'or tandis que la déflation continue, on pourrait bien se retrouver sans même avoir fait exprès avec une sorte d'étalon-or