Une méthode de limitation des naissances aux US

[Lameador]

Hello

 

Je suis tombé sur un papier de recherche intéressant : https://privpapers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3665046

 

Ca parle des sièges autos obligatoires pour les enfants, et de l'impact de cette norme sur la taille de familles (en rendant plus contraignant le fait d'avoir un troisième enfant).

 

La version courte : 

" Since 1977, U.S. states have passed laws steadily raising the age for which a child must ride in a car safety seat. These laws significantly raise the cost of having a third child, as many regular-sized cars cannot fit three child seats in the back. Using census data and state-year variation in laws, we estimate that when women have two children of ages requiring mandated car seats, they have a lower annual probability of giving birth by 0.73 percentage points. Consistent with a causal channel, this effect is limited to third child births, is concentrated in households with access to a car, and is larger when a male is present (when both front seats are likely to be occupied). We estimate that these laws prevented only 57 car crash fatalities of children nationwide in 2017. Simultaneously, they led to a permanent reduction of approximately 8,000 births in the same year, and 145,000 fewer births since 1980, with 90% of this decline being since 2000."

 

Compte tenu des efforts massifs d'ingénierie sociale dont sont victimes les US, je me demande si cette réduction de la fertilité ne serait pas non pas l'objectif principal, mais vue par des régulateurs comme un bénéfice annexe.

[Mathieu_D]

C'est une des choses qui rendent pénibles la préparation psychologique de la conception du troisième, oui...

[Hayek's plosive]

Citation

Using census data and state-year variation in laws, we estimate that when women have two children of ages requiring mandated car seats, they have a lower annual probability of giving birth by 0.73 percentage points.

 

Donc la causalité, on s'assoit dessus, et tout ca pour arriver a une baisse de 0.73%.

 

Citation

We estimate that these laws prevented only 57 car crash fatalities of children nationwide in 2017.

 

Loi inutile donc.

 

Citation

Simultaneously, they led to a permanent reduction of approximately 8,000 births in the same year, and 145,000 fewer births since 1980, with 90% of this decline being since 2000.

 

90% du declin ayant lieu apres 2000.

 

What a bag of hot air.

 

/thread

[POE]

Le 01/10/2020 à 15:55, Mathieu_D a dit :

C'est une des choses qui rendent pénibles la préparation psychologique de la conception du troisième, oui...

 

En quoi consiste la préparation psychologique de la conception du troisième ? 

[Mathieu_D]

1 hour ago, POE said:

 

En quoi consiste la préparation psychologique de la conception du troisième ? 

Faire en sorte que Madame soit d'accord.