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Mister Polark

Par Mister Polark
dans La Taverne

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Cthulhu

Cthulhu

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Enfin pris le temps de lire The Problem With Everything-Bagel Liberalism. Je ne m'attendais pas à ce que la moitié de l'article soit sur les efforts de l'administration Biden de rapatrier la construction de micro-processeurs aux États-Unis.

 

https://archive.is/dUn9X

 

Le passage très marrant :

 

Citation

Semiconductors are a national security priority. The high cost of building them here has become a national security liability. This reasoning was persuasive enough that the CHIPS Act passed with bipartisan support; 17 Republican senators backed the final bill. And there is a lot to like in the legislation. But it is very hard to read the guidelines the administration just released and see a serious effort to lower costs. The government is adding subsidies with one hand and layering on requirements with the other.


Page 11, for instance, encourages a pre-application that includes an environmental questionnaire “to assess the likely level of review under the National Environmental Policy Act.” Page 20 mandates that applicants prepare “an equity strategy, in concert with their partners, to create equitable work force pathways for economically disadvantaged individuals in their region,” which should include “building new pipelines for workers, including specific efforts to attract economically disadvantaged individuals and promote diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility.” Page 21 asks for a plan “to include women and other economically disadvantaged individuals in the construction industry,” “strongly encourages” the use of project labor agreements and sets out requirements for “access to child care for facility and construction workers.”


Pages 23 and 24 ask applicants to detail how they will include minority-, veteran- and female-owned businesses, as well as small businesses, in their supply chain and offer seven bullet points detailing how this might be done, including dividing supply chain requirements “into smaller tasks or quantities to expand access” and “establishing delivery schedules for subcontractors that encourage participation by small, minority-owned, veteran-owned and women-owned businesses.” Then there are requirements for “a climate and environment responsibility plan,” as well as community investments in areas like transit, affordable housing and schools.

 

Pas mal de références à Chip War que j'ai dans ma liste de bouquins à lire.

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Adrian

Adrian

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Posté

Le mémo à 6 pages d'Amazon

 

Citation

En contrepied des présentations visuellement plaisantes, Amazon s’est construit sur une culture de l’écrit. Depuis 2004, le processus d’écriture est devenu une doctrine centrale pour guider toute prise de décision. Chaque réunion est obligatoirement basée sur un document écrit.

 

Un des documents clé utilisé par Amazon est le mémo à 6 pages.

 

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F. mas

F. mas

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Posté

Un article totalement hallucinant sur Macron dans Politico (qui certes n'a jamais été très profrançais, mais là... on en vient à convoquer la psychatrie pour parler de son narcissisme et de l'absence totale de retour sur lui-même. A noter également certains propos de ses conseillers proches sur le fait que les Français n'aiment pas son brillo et son intelligence lol).

 

"He somehow seems a bit less than human, a little too perfect, like a humanoid robot that gets the human part a little bit wrong — a concept known in robotics and computer animation as the “uncanny valley,” for the unease and even revulsion it elicits in a viewer.

Indeed, it can sometimes seem as if he is playing the character of the president of France, complete with cosplay photo shoots — unshaven in a military hoodie in obvious emulation of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or taking to a heavy bag in an intense boxing session. 

“Everything is an act,” my psychiatrist friend said recently. “He is always posturing and posing; the psychology of that is fascinating and disturbing.”"

 

"The most jarring character shift came at a formal ceremony with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square. Macron stepped onto the stage looking very severe, almost scowling.

The Chinese dictator spoke for just eight minutes, reading a perfunctory, prepared speech off a piece of paper. Then it was Macron’s turn; without notes, speaking directly to Xi in a highly performative, almost lecturing, style that was clearly aimed at the cameras and any French people watching.

Xi’s entourage of sycophantic ministers grew increasingly uncomfortable as the lecture continued: 10 minutes, 15 minutes, it just went on. Xi, who is treated in the Chinese system as a modern-day emperor, blinked furiously and looked as if he’d just swallowed a particularly noxious frog. At around the 21-minute mark, he let out a clearly audible sigh — intense impatience emanating from every pore of his body.

Macron seemed blithely unaware. His speech went on three times longer than Xi’s — an unforgivable breach of protocol in the Chinese system, especially since it came from the leader of a former colonial, barbarian country that has now fallen on hard times."

 

"On the China trip, one of the things that most struck me was how Macron appeared to be winging things, with little or no input from the French diplomatic service or anyone with deep knowledge and expertise on Xi Jinping’s China."

 

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/magnificent-mind-emmanuel-macron-france-legislative-election/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR2lra2L8x6cVK77-jg2op2ikX7hxrfsNdAV1OHsafiXunETvIcdQSkkNoo_aem_ueRVn5HasrZhmz7Pl86LMg

Rincevent

Rincevent

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il y a 37 minutes, F. mas a dit :

Xi’s entourage of sycophantic ministers

Il faut aussi parler de Macron's entourage of sycophantic advisors. ;)

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Cthulhu

Cthulhu

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Posté

Un long article portrait de Luckey Palmer, le fondateur de Oculus et Anduril. Je connaissais les deux boites mais sans avoir fait le lien.

 

Y a énormément de passages intéressants dans l'article, le personnage est plus grand que nature, il a monté 2 boites qui valent des milliards, se fait virer de Facebook pour des raisons plus ou moins politiques.

 

Et d'autres trucs complètement fous comme :

 

Citation

“In terms of the subterranean side,” he told me, “the U.S. and the Soviet Union both used to explicitly recognize that the next warfighting domain is the subterranean domain. Not like the tunnels in Gaza or bunkers, I’m talking about the full crust of the earth as a three-dimensional maneuvering space through which we’re moving people, weapons, effects, signals, and even infrastructure. The U.S. used to have a subterrene program. The Soviets had a subterrene program, they actually built a working prototype. The problem was that at the time nuclear energy was considered to be the only way to build a useful subterrene. Then we decided we were not going to use nuclear for civil applications or new military applications.”

 

“But I figured out how to build a subterrene without nuclear,” he said. “That’s the really interesting innovation I’ve come up with. I can’t tell you about the details, but I can tell you that I strongly still believe that the subterranean domain, it’s going to be a domain just like air, land, sea, or space. Some interesting things happen once you can control the crust of the earth.”

 

“But to be clear,” Luckey’s press handler interjected, “we’re not actively working on that.”

 

“Oh no we are,” Luckey said, smiling. “We are.”

 

She looked at me and shrugged: “There are things I don’t know about sometimes.”

 

https://www.tabletmag.com/feature/american-vulcan-palmer-luckey-anduril

 

C'est là qu'on voit la vraie force de frappe des États-Unis où ce genre de profils peut vraiment exceller alors que ce serait impensable en Europe ou en Asie.

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Adrian

Adrian

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Citation

Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge” hypothesis

A popular hypothesis in international studies states that a “youth bulge”––an age pyramid dominated by large cohorts between 15 and 29 years of age––increases the risk of political violence. However, empirical evidence on this link remains inconclusive to date. In this article, we systematically assess the youth effect using new data from 183 countries between 1996 and 2015. We find that within countries, a decrease in the youth ratio is generally associated with a decrease in the number of violent deaths from terrorism or other internal conflicts, and vice versa. This is also confirmed in out-of-sample predictions. However, the association is not evident in all constellations and sensitive to modeling issues. In particular, large cohorts of young males can become a disruptive power in countries that increase enrollment in post-primary education. Although this is usually followed by fertility decline, youth bulges often remain at record levels for quite some time due to high birth rates in the past. Strong labor markets can in general suppress the detrimental consequences of youth bulges. However, the combination of growing youth cohorts and educational expansion often leads to increased political violence even in the presence of low youth unemployment.

 

Rincevent

Rincevent

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il y a 4 minutes, Adrian a dit :

However, the combination of growing youth cohorts and educational expansion often leads to increased political violence even in the presence of low youth unemployment.

Ce qui nous ramène à une des antiennes les plus méconnues de tonton Todd (même si je ne sais pas si c'est le premier à avoir remarqué ce fait) : une révolution, ça arrive quand les fils savent lire alors que leur père en est incapable. (Plus sérieusement, ça arrive quand le taux d'illettrisme diminue, quelque part entre un tiers et deux tiers d'une population).

Cthulhu

Cthulhu

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Posté

Un long article de Slate sur le flirt entre Ice Cube (et autre artistes de rap) et la droite trumpiste: https://slate.com/culture/2024/08/ice-cube-donald-trump-tucker-carlson-joe-rogan.html

 

Citation

Those of us who grew up with Public Enemy and Tupac Shakur or even a quirky bohemian like Mos Def have watched hip-hop invert through its middle-aged crisis; it’s been frustrating to see our most popular artists become interested more in getting into the White House for a photo op rather than in painting it black.

 

C'est très teinté gauchiste qui découvre que les rappeurs des années 90s sont prêts à vendre leur famille pour un peu de $. Amusant au début, mais répétitif vu la longueur de l'article.

 

Au-delà de ça, on peut lire entre les lignes l'appel du pied de la campagne Trump envers les noirs urbains via une poignée de gros noms du hip-hop. Comme l'article le souligne, ça avait peu marché en 2020 avec 91% de votes pour Biden. A voir ce que ça donne en 2024.

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Adrian

Adrian

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Posté

Concepts: race and genetic ancestry

 

Citation
  • Race and genetic ancestry are distinct concepts with distinct causes and consequences. Race is defined within a social context. Genetic ancestry is defined within the context of reference populations.
  • Race, either a historical “essentialist” views or a more contemporary “population” views, provides a poor model of true genetic variation. Genetic variation follows a “nested subset” model where the most variation is observed in Africa and subsets of that variation are observed in Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Model fitting of race to genetic data provides a much worse fit than a nested subset model that is incompatible with race (Long, Li, and Healy 2009).
  • Comparing pairs of sequenced individuals, the largest number of differing sites were within Africa (consistent with a nested evolutionary model): a pair of Yoruba/Yoruba individuals have more differences than a pair of Yoruba/French individuals (Biddanda, Rice, and Novembre 2020). Most of the differences between pairs of individuals were because one individual carried a globally common allele and the other did not.
  • Estimates of FST between divergent geographic populations range between 0.11 and 0.15 (Bhatia et al. 2013), in other words, if we take the individual-level genetic variation at a typical polymorphism and condition out population labels, we will still be left with 85% of the original variance. This is in stark contrast to historic racial models that assumed racial groups were largely homozygous within populations and highly divergent between (i.e. FST close to 1.0).
  • A brief tour of methods for analyzing population structure in genetic data:
  1. Principal Components Analysis (PCA), an eigendecomposition of the sample relatedness matrix, can identify individuals drawn from populations with differing allele frequencies. Theory indicates that PCA is extremely sensitive and is expected to identify structure in most large datasets (Patterson, Price, and Reich 2006). While PCA has useful genealogical properties, it is easily distorted by the sampling of individuals (McVean 2009) and can also produce arbitrary non-linearities in the presence of spatially local structure (Novembre and Stephens 2008).
  2. Model-based clustering (STRUCTURE) attempts to identify individuals as mixtures of alleles from a fixed set of populations (Pritchard, Stephens, and Donnelly 2000). STRUCTURE is similarly distorted by the sampling of individuals, as well as the number of defined populations, including identifying admixtures that do not exist in truth or missing admixtures that do exist (Lawson, van Dorp, and Falush 2018).
  3. Parametric models (Admixture Graphs) attempt to fit populations to trees or graphs based on tests of cross-population allele sharing. Admixture graphs can often identify incorrect graphs that provide a better fit to the data than the true graph, or many equally likely graphs. Reanalysis of published admixture graph studies demonstrated several instances where historical conclusions were drawn from data that was compatible with many different graphs (Maier et al. 2023).
  4. All ancestry inference methods are biased by the sampling process and/or model parameters, and no method can identify “true” ancestry because the true sampling process is unknown.
  • A brief tour of genetic ancestry in large-scale datasets:
  1. All large biobanks exhibit continuous population structure that is poorly explained by conventional racial groups (Wojcik et al. 2019).
  2. When restricting to “homogenous” ancestry populations enriched for European origin, continuous PCs are observed that reflect ancestry from reference populations within Europe (Galinsky et al. 2016). When restricting to homogenous white individuals in a single European country (the UK), county level PCs are observed (Agrawal et al. 2020).
  3. The same patterns arise in other countries: A large Chinese biobank identified PCs that correlated with within-city neighborhoods (Walters et al. 2023); a large Japanese biobank identified PCs that correlated with dozens of local regions (Sakaue et al. 2020).
  • A brief tour of human history from population genetics:
  1. Diverse studies of modern and ancient DNA have demonstrated that historic admixtures and migrations were ubiquitous and highly dynamic. Genetic ancestry rarely reflects current geographic patterns and disputes simple models of isolated human development (Pickrell and Reich 2014).
  2. Modern individuals from the Americas are generally more similar in their ancestry to European than to Native American reference individuals (Moreno-Estrada et al. 2013; Gravel et al. 2013). Native American reference individuals exhibit complex relationships to ancient Siberian genomes as well as modern Polynesian populations (Ioannidis et al. 2020), where the latter appear to have been settled directly by East Asian groups (Skoglund et al. 2016).
  3. European individuals derive ancestry from historic populations that often no longer exist in un-admixed form (Lazaridis et al. 2014; Sikora et al. 2019) or were rapidly displaced (Olalde et al. 2018). In more recent history (the Bronze Age) both extensive migration and population structure have been observed across Europe (Antonio et al. 2024).
  4. Admixture and migration is extensive in Africa in both modern (Fan et al. 2023) and ancient data (Skoglund et al. 2017; Lipson et al. 2020). Yet there are massive gaps in our understanding of African population history including competing theories of continuously mixing pan-African “metapopulations” (Scerri, Chikhi, and Thomas 2019; Ragsdale et al. 2023) versus recent “back to Africa” migrations (Cole et al. 2020).
  • In short, human history has been highly dynamic, with extensive admixture, instances of rapid migration, geographic shifts, ancient introgression events, historic populations that no longer exist in unadmixed forms. Conventional models of race are irrelevant to the study of genetic variation, and even models of simple population relationships are proving to be fundamentally wrong.

 

@Rincevent, summary

Rincevent

Rincevent

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Il y a 10 heures, Adrian a dit :

Conventional models of race are irrelevant to the study of genetic variation

Bah, ouais ; placer les Igbos et les Mbuti dans la même catégorie "congoïde" (coucou Riton), c'est un indice fort que classer les origines ethniques en cinq "races" manque singulièrement de résolution pour la plupart des applications. :jesaispo:

 

Il y a 10 heures, Adrian a dit :

Admixture and migration is extensive in Africa

"Africa", ça manque aussi singulièrement de résolution. Pour rappel, les Khoisan ont vécu génétiquement isolés du reste de l'espèce humaine pendant plusieurs dizaines de milliers d'années. :jesaispo:

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Hugh

Hugh

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Posté

Une entrevue de Trotsky par Simenon:

 

https://www.marxists.org/francais/trotsky/oeuvres/1933/06/ldt19330607.htm (badurl)

 

C'est beaucoup pour poster tout, mais le commence:

 

Citation

J'ai rencontré dix fois Hitler, au Kaiserhof, alors que, tendu et fébrile, déjà chancelier, il menait sa campagne électorale. J'ai vu Mussolini contempler sans lassitude le défilé de milliers de jeunes hommes. Et à Montparnasse, un soir, j'ai reconnu Gandhi dans une silhouette blanche qui rasait les maisons, suivie par de jeunes femmes fanatiques.

 

Pour avoir une entrevue avec Trotsky, me voilà sur le pont plus grouillant que le Pont-Neuf de Paris qui relie le vieux et l'ancien Constantinople, Stamboul et Galata. Pourquoi vais-je avoir désormais une impression de beau dimanche sur la Seine, du côté de Saint-Cloud, de Bougival ou de Poissy ? Je n'en sais rien.

 

Tous les bateaux, autour des embarcadères enchevêtrés, me font penser à des bateaux-mouches. Ils sont plus grands ? C'est certain. Ils ont même un petit air marin et l'hélice bat de l'eau salée. Mais c'est une question de proportion. C'est tout le décor qui est plus vaste, le ciel lui-même plus lointain.

 

Ici, une rive s'appelle l'Europe et l'autre l'Asie. Au lieu des remorqueurs et des péniches de la Seine, ce sont autant de cargos et de paquebots qui battent pavillon de tous les pays du monde, s'en vont vers la mer Noire ou se faufilent dans les Dardanelles.

 

Qu'importe ? Je garde mon impression de beau dimanche, de banlieue, de guinguettes. Il y a des couples d'amoureux sur le pont du bateau, des paysans qui transportent des poules et des coqs dans des cages, des marins en permission qui sourient d'avance au plaisir qu'ils vont se donner.

 

Trotsky ? Je lui ai écrit avant-hier pour lui demander une entrevue. Le lendemain matin déjà j'étais réveillé par la sonnerie du téléphone.

 

Adrian

Adrian

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Posté

Wikipedia : Orthographies and dyslexia

 

Citation

The complexity of a language's orthography is directly related to the difficulty of learning to read in that language. Orthographic complexity also contributes to how dyslexia manifests in readers of different languages.[14]

 

Deep orthographies are writing systems, such as those of English and Arabic, that do not have a one-to-one correspondence between sounds (phonemes) and the letters (graphemes) that represent them.
 

Shallow orthographies, such as Italian and Finnish, have a close relationship between graphemes and phonemes, and the spelling of words is very consistent. With shallow orthographies, new readers have few problems learning to decode words and as a result children learn to read relatively quickly. Most dyslexic readers of shallow orthographic systems learn to decode words with relative ease compared to dyslexics using deep orthographies, though they continue to have difficulty with reading fluency and comprehension.[8] The hallmark system of dyslexia in a shallow orthography is a comparatively slow speed of rapid automatized naming.
 

For languages with relatively deep orthographies, such as English and French, readers have greater difficulty learning to decode new words than languages with shallow orthographies. As a result, children's reading achievement levels are lower.[15] Research has shown that the hallmark symptoms of dyslexia in a deep orthography are a deficit in phonological awareness and difficulty reading words at grade level.[16] For these dyslexic readers, learning to decode words may take a long time—indeed, in the deepest orthographies a distinctive symptom of dyslexia is the inability to read at the word level—but many dyslexic readers have fewer problems with fluency and comprehension once some level of decoding has been mastered.

[...]
there is little evidence that a more "regular" orthographic system would significantly diminish the number of dyslexia cases. Because there is also a visual aspect to dyslexia, affected children often show symptoms such as mirror letter reversal (e.g. confusing "b" and "d"), which can manifest in any language regardless of orthographic depth.)

 

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Bisounours

Bisounours

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Article-témoignage intéressant dans le sens où il cumule tous les clichés de gauche. Il est tiré du livre L'argent des gens de Thomas Baumgartner (ça commence fort) qui regroupe dix témoignages sur le rapport à l'argent.

 

Au fur et à mesure de cette lecture crispante, l'envie augmente de botter l'arrière-train de cette pauvre victime (de ses choix foireux) :

"Après deux premières années d'histoire, j'ai fait une fac d'arts du spectacle. Je pratiquais le théâtre depuis quelques années"

 

C'est un festival.

 

 

Lancelot

Lancelot

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C'est interminable et répétitif.

 

Quote

Je ne me considère pas comme étant de la classe ouvrière.

Non tu fais partie de la classe parasite cassos. Pas de quoi être fière. Les ouvriers au moins ils produisent quelque chose même si tu les méprises.

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Bisounours

Bisounours

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il y a 5 minutes, Lancelot a dit :

C'est interminable et répétitif

Carrément. Son témoignage aurait pu se résumer en quelques lignes. Si tout le livre est de cet acabit, quelle purge nullissime.

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Adrian

Adrian

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What happens to heritable conditions across generations?

 

Citation

When thinking about heritability we typically envision a simple continuous phenotype like height or perhaps an ordinal scale like IQ. For these traits, higher heritability very crudely implies that the trait in offspring looks more similar to the average trait in parents. But it is harder to think about the heritability of binary conditions that are either present or absent in an individual, especially when they are infrequent in the population and thus absent in most parents. Our intuitions break down and can lead to misconceptions about familial risk or how quickly a condition will be selected out of the population. Let’s look at how polygenic conditions are modeled and the implications for multi-generational patterns.


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Rincevent

Rincevent

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Posté
il y a une heure, Adrian a dit :

What happens to heritable conditions across generations?

 

 

 

Je lis "500+ years", il lit "rapidly". Et même en admettant son modèle, son graphique indique une réduction de moitié au bout de 250 ans... soit moins de la moitié de ce que le twittos original propose. La midwitterie est décidément une tare grave.

 

(Qui plus est, pour ce genre de trait, même un léger déplacement de la courbe engendre une différence significative en queue de distribution.)

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