Prix du pétrole : du puit à la pompe

[Hayek's plosive]

Un peu hors-sujet, le PDG Christophe de Margerie qui était dans Total, est décédé dans un accident d'avion et à lire certains commentaires sur Zero Hedge et Reuters, certains pensent que c'est peut-être pas un accident.

http://www.reuters.com/article/comments/idUSKCN0I92HF20141021

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-20/anti-petrodollar-ceo-french-energy-giant-total-dies-freak-plane-crash-moscow

 

A renvoyer sur le fil des théories du complot, ici.

[h16]

Bon, c'est pas peer-reviewed, mais ça mérite tout de même un coup d'oeil :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/business/energy-environment/us-oil-boom-shows-no-signs-of-slowing-down.html

 

 

Even after a drop of as much as 25 percent in oil prices since early summer, several government and private reports say that it would take a drop of $10 to $20 a barrel more — to as low as $60 a barrel — to slow production even modestly.

 

C'est rien que des menteurs, d'abord.

[Hayek's plosive]

Ca serait cool. Surtout qu'a $60, la Russie imploserait. Ca serait rigolol.

[FabriceM]

Bon, c'est pas peer-reviewed, mais ça mérite tout de même un coup d'oeil :

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/18/business/energy-environment/us-oil-boom-shows-no-signs-of-slowing-down.html

 

 

C'est rien que des menteurs, d'abord.

 

Even after a drop of as much as 25 percent in oil prices since early summer, several government and private reports say that it would take a drop of $10 to $20 a barrel more — to as low as $60 a barrel — to slow production even modestly.

[..]

He added that when investors start seeing $75 to $80 oil, that will cut back some ambitions, and that could mean “a leveling off of new supplies by midyear 2015.”

[blabla USA mangent des pdm de l'OPEC]

The Paris-based International Energy Agency, which accumulates and analyzes data for the industrialized nations, this week identified deep water offshore production, the Canadian oil sands and some of the American oil shale fields as the most susceptible to cuts in investment and production when oil prices fall. But only about 8 percent of these types of production require $80 a barrel oil to break even.

 

Seulement 8%. Quand même 8%. Question de point de vue. Je ne considère pas que cet article contredise ce que j'ai exprimé au dessus.

[Ray]

On reste sur un plafond de l'ordre de grandeur des plus hauts historique. Qui est gérable, mais pas du tout confortable.

Et on constate que des prix qui baisse, ça devient très (trop) rapidement inconfortable pour les fournisseurs, avec un impact potentiel sur les capex, qui sont et seront de plus en plus le nerf de la guerre dans le secteur de l'énergie.

Ce qui me ferait vraiment paniquer, ce serait une baisse marquée des capex dans l'huile.

 

Genre, si la tendance prévue par ce genre de rapport se réalisait. http://energypolicy.columbia.edu/sites/default/files/energy/Kopits%20-%20Oil%20and%20Economic%20Growth%20%28SIPA%2C%202014%29%20-%20Presentation%20Version%5B1%5D.pdf(p 50)

 

Où on lit également des phrases qui font froid dans le dos, genre page 40, sur les majors

"Oil production has faltered, even as capex has soared

•Capex productivity has fallen by a factor of five since 2000

•Observed decline trend now approaching 5% per year"

 

J'aimerais être convaincu que Maugeri avait raison, que c'est reparti pour une ère d'abondance bien venue, mais ça n'est pas le cas. Pour l'instant.

J'avais lu quelque part qu'historiquement le coût avait augmenté pour Intel ou AMD à chaque nouvelle génération de microprocesseurs, parallèlement à la baisse du prix pour le consommateur. Et aux dernières nouvelles la loi de Moore tient toujours.

 

Il faut voir les CAPEX en fonction du chiffre d'affaires pour voir ce qui est soutenable et ce qui ne l'est pas. Dans le rapport les CAPEX/baril sont à 20$ en 2013 ce qui ne parait pas énorme

 

Et que ce soit tendu pour des fournisseurs, c'est pas spécifique à ce marché, c'est le principe de la concurrence. Les moins efficients font faillite et les coûts se réduisent.

[FabriceM]

 

Offshore Northern Seas Conference 2014

“Future Oil Industry: Turning Challenges into Opportunities”

Remarks by Khalid A. Al-Falih, President & CEO of Saudi Aramco

 

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen; I am delighted to be back in Stavanger and to speak at the Offshore Northern Seas Conference. I am especially honored to do so on the 40th anniversary of this premier offshore conference. I would like to take a moment to congratulate the organizers on this significant milestone, and wish you even greater success during the next four decades—and beyond. And I certainly want to congratulate all of you involved in the North Sea both for the great things you have accomplished in these waters over the last several decades and for being such an important platform for the development of the offshore industry worldwide.

 

My friends, as we meet today, many observers point to a cloudy outlook for our industry and predict even more stormy weather ahead. While I am as confident as ever of our long term future, I certainly acknowledge that our sector faces significant hurdles today.

 

First, rising costs and cost overruns are dragging many projects—and no one knows this better than those of you in the offshore industry, with project price tags in the tens of billions of dollars, and with significant financial and technical risks. Even at Saudi Aramco, project costs have roughly doubled over the last decade despite deploying cutting edge technologies and applying our robust project management systems to mitigate cost escalation. These project challenges are driven in part by shortages and bottlenecks in our supply chain, including drilling contractors, shipyards, EPC firms, and materials and equipment suppliers, which have led to growing quality, schedule and cost pressures.

 

Of course, larger investments and a shrinking number of easier and cheaper fields mean more expensive production, and so industry profitability is plateauing after a banner decade. As a result, investor expectations go unfulfilled, and amid this squeeze between higher costs and shareholder demands, we are seeing project cancellations and a general capital curtailment.

Second, we are experiencing critical manpower shortages in the industry, including the services sector, as a generation of older veterans retires; enrollment in earth-science programs continues to stagnate; and our industry competes for talent with other sectors. Finding and attracting competent engineers, rig personnel and geoscientists to run ever more complex and expensive operations has become an acute challenge.

 

Third, the industry continues to grapple with environmental concerns, especially climate change, as we should; and perennial issues like safety remain near the top of our industry’s agenda, as they must.

 

Fourth, at the macro level, continued global economic weakness is hindering short-term growth in oil demand, while turmoil in oil producing regions such as Africa, the Middle East and the former Soviet Union is further clouding the outlook.

 

The factors I just highlighted are likely to put downward pressure on supplies over the longer term, if the industry fails to make prudent and timely investments. For now however, the market is shrugging them off and prompt prices are reflective of weaker demand.

 

[Nick de Cusa]

"... climate change ..."

 

Air de Broca pas comprendre quoi lire.

[FabriceM]

La suite disponible ici : http://www.saudiaramco.com/en/home/news-media/speeches/Offshore-Northern-Seas-Conference.html

 

So in the interest of making sure the pendulum of change doesn’t swing too far toward the bearish side, let me briefly talk about the bullish factors which provide a counterbalance.

 

First of all, over the next two decades, world primary energy demand is set to grow by more than a third from the current level. At the same time, we can take comfort that alternative energy sources—despite facing multiple obstacles—are beginning to grow their contributions, although slowly and starting from a small base.

Yet even as alternative energy sources make inroads, energy efficiency improves, and with today’s moderate oil demand growth, the longer-term oil outlook is fairly healthy. Despite some marvelous advancement by various hybrids and pure electrics, petroleum-based liquids will remain the fuels of choice, holding between 80 and 90 percent of transport market share in 2050 depending on the scenario considered. And while the bulk of demand will be concentrated in transport, petrochemicals will also contribute more, by growing at rates faster than GDP.

Second, looking at the supply side, many developed fields around the world are becoming increasingly mature, and offsetting their observed decline is not a trivial challenge. To meet forecast demand growth and offset this decline, our industry will need to add close to 40 million barrels per day of new capacity in the next two decades. To put that figure into perspective, that’s equivalent to approximately 30 Norways or 15 times America’s current unconventional oil production.

Of course, there are plentiful resources in place, given the very large base of conventional and unconventional liquid resources still to be developed. Yet a significant share of these resources entails complex and expensive development activities, including shale and tight oil and gas, as well as heavy oil. So, to tap these increasingly expensive oil resources, oil prices will need to be healthy enough to attract needed investments. The other side of the same coin is that long-term prices will be underpinned by more expensive marginal barrels.

 

A third cause for confidence is our industry’s proven track record of reinventing itself to turn challenges into opportunities. Over the decades, the industry has stepped out from onshore to offshore, then to deep sea and frontier regions, and most recently to unconventionals. The shale revolution in the US offers the most recent compelling example of a sector-wide transformation, as costs were reduced and technology adapted and optimized to make a previously uneconomic resource viable. The resulting production volumes speak for themselves.

 

[..]

 

 

TL;PL : C'est bullish pour nous parce que les consommateurs sont dépendants de l'huile pour longtemps encore. Parce que pleins de producteurs bénéficieront d'un bel effet de rente. Parce faire toujours plus gros, plus loin , plus complexe, malgré tout, jusqu'ici, on a su faire.

[FabriceM]

"... climate change ..."

 

[toi] pas comprendre quoi lire.

 

Oui. En fait, le type était au milieu de ses pairs, et il voulait faire un discours sur le péril vert mais, pour éviter les embrouilles, il a choisi de glisser juste une petite phrase entre les gros paragraphes sur les autres difficultés de l'industrie. C'est l'évidence.

 

[Malky]

Un peu hors-sujet, le PDG Christophe de Margerie qui était dans Total, est décédé dans un accident d'avion et à lire certains commentaires sur Zero Hedge et Reuters, certains pensent que c'est peut-être pas un accident.

http://www.reuters.com/article/comments/idUSKCN0I92HF20141021

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-20/anti-petrodollar-ceo-french-energy-giant-total-dies-freak-plane-crash-moscow

Comme quoi ZH arrive à publier pas mal de bullshit. Du côté russe c’est juste pas crédible, de Margerie était en très bons rapports avec Vlad. Du côté yankee, c’est prêter beaucoup trop d’importance à la CIA, organiser un truc comme ça en banlieue de Moscou sans que le FSB ne le sache c’est inimaginable.

C’est une grosse bourde du staff de l’aéroport, la théorie du complot dans ce cas c’est juste du délire.

[NoName]

Comme quoi ZH arrive à publier pas mal de bullshit. Du côté russe c’est juste pas crédible, de Margerie était en très bons rapports avec Vlad. Du côté yankee, c’est prêter beaucoup trop d’importance à la CIA, organiser un truc comme ça en banlieue de Moscou sans que le FSB ne le sache c’est inimaginable.

C’est une grosse bourde du staff de l’aéroport, la théorie du complot dans ce cas c’est juste du délire.

C'est à dire que c'est un peu le principe de la théorie du complot.

[Stephdumas]

Certains n'aiment pas trop le pétrole albertain et font du dumping des prix.

http://www.quebecdroite.com/2014/10/the-oil-weapon-can-jeopardize-alberta.html

[Stephdumas]

Quoique un autre article de American Thinker mentionne que l'Arabie Saoudite pourrait être pris entre l'abre et l'écorce pour les prix du pétrole

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/10/saudis_cut_oil_supply_to_markets.html

[the_student]

Quoique un autre article de American Thinker mentionne que l'Arabie Saoudite pourrait être pris entre l'abre et l'écorce pour les prix du pétrole

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2014/10/saudis_cut_oil_supply_to_markets.html

 

J'aime ce genre d'article le matin. Je ne comprend toujours pas pourquoi l'AS ne laisse pas tomber tout les pays parasites de l'OPEP. En tout cas:

 

[Nick de Cusa]

Un bon article du Minarchiste, qui rate peut-être juste un peu les pertes politiques de production dans de nombraux pays majeurs.

 

http://www.contrepoints.org/2014/10/29/186302-comprendre-la-degringolade-du-prix-du-petrole

[the_student]

Un bon article du Minarchiste, qui rate peut-être juste un peu les pertes politiques de production dans de nombraux pays majeurs.

 

http://www.contrepoints.org/2014/10/29/186302-comprendre-la-degringolade-du-prix-du-petrole

 

Merci.

 

[the_student]

US Crude Oil Production higher than at any times since 1973

 

[FabriceM]

Ça ne s'invente pas.

 

Ce truc a été écrit en 2004 par un type qui n'avait aucune formation scientifique ou économique et qui a tourné conseiller en astrologie depuis. Matt (Matthew) Savinar..

 

Archives de son site :

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206224534/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/AboutMe.html

https://web.archive.org/web/20040110171830/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

 

Actuellement :

 

http://northbayastrology.com/?page_id=5

[the_student]

Ça ne s'invente pas.

 

Ce truc a été écrit en 2004 par un type qui n'avait aucune formation scientifique ou économique et qui a tourné conseiller en astrologie depuis. Matt (Matthew) Savinar..

 

Archives de son site :

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20040206224534/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/AboutMe.html

https://web.archive.org/web/20040110171830/http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html

 

Actuellement :

 

http://northbayastrology.com/?page_id=5

 

Merci, le commentateur n'avait pas laissé la source.

[FabriceM]

Pour autant, le boom de la production aux USA devrait être pris avec beaucoup plus de sel que ne le font la plupart des "technoptimistes" ici et ailleurs.

Sans la politique monétaire de la fed, un tel emballement n'aurait probablement pas été possible. Malgré ce boom, les volumes globaux sont restés inchangés et les prix essentiellement plats jusqu'aux 2-3 derniers mois.

Variation de prix dont on ne peut exclure, pour l'instant, une explication par des facteurs purement spéculatifs et politiques. Les chinois profitent de cette baisse de prix pour stocker en masse, malgré tout ce qu'on peut dire sur l'influence du ralentissement de la croissance chinoise.

 

Bref, c'est vraiment tôt pour crier victoire.

[Hayek's plosive]

Oil Tumbles on Saudi Price Cut as European Bonds Rise

 

 

Oil tumbled as Saudi Arabia cut the cost of its crude to the U.S., deepening a selloff that sent prices to a three-year low. Bonds advanced, while U.S.-equity index futures declined.

[...]
Oil prices fell into a bear market last month as global demand growth slowed and supplies swelled from producers outside OPEC, with the U.S. pumping at the fastest pace in more than three decades. Declining commodity prices are contributing to slower inflation around the world, helping preserve the value of fixed payments on bonds.

 

 

[the_student]

United States crude oil production is above 9 million barrels per day for the first time in over forty years.

USA crude oil production was at 9.06 million barrels per day.
USA crude oil and natural gas liquid production was over 12.15 million barrels per day.
USA all liquids oil production was 14.27 million barrels per day.

USA crude oil production has increased by over 4 million barrels per day since 2009.
USA Ccrude oil production has increased by over 3 million barrels per day since April, 2012.

 

 

http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/11/usa-crude-oil-production-over-9-million.html#more

 

[FabriceM]

IEA World Energy Outlook, executive sumary, 2014
 

Energy security concerns on the rise
 
The short-term picture of a well-supplied oil market should not disguise the challenges that lie ahead as reliance grows on a relatively small number of producers. Regional oil demand trends  are quite distinct: for each barrel of oil no longer used in OECD countries, two barrels more are used in the non-OECD. Increased oil use for transport and petrochemicals drives demand higher, from 90 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2013 to 104 mb/d in 2040, although high prices and new policy measures gradually constrain the pace of overall consumption growth, bringing it towards a plateau. Investment of some $900 billion per year in upstream oil and gas development is needed by the 2030s to meet projected demand, but there are many uncertainties over whether this investment will be forthcoming in time – especially once United States tight oil output levels off in the early 2020s and its total production eventually starts to fall back. The complexity and capital-intensity of developing Brazilian deepwater fields, the difficulty of replicating the US tight oil experience at scale outside North America, unresolved questions over the outlook for growth in Canadian oil sands output, the sanctions that restrict Russian access to technologies and capital markets and – above all – the political and security challenges in Iraq could all contribute to a shortfall in investment below the levels required. The situation in the Middle East is a major concern given steadily increasing reliance on this region for oil production growth, especially for Asian countries that are set to import two out of every three barrels of crude traded internationally by 2040.
[..]
Fossil-fuel subsidies totalled $550 billion in 2013 – more than four-times those to renewable energy – and are holding back investment in efficiency and renewable
[..]
Almost 200 reactors (of the 434 operational at the end of 2013) are retired in the period to 2040, with the vast majority in Europe, the United States, Russia and Japan; the challenge to replace the shortfall in generation is especially acute in Europe.

[the_student]

[Hayek's plosive]

[Tramp]

Bam, le WTI à 70 dollars, au plus bas depuis 4 ans.

[the_student]

Le marché reprend ses droits:

 

http://www.contrepoints.org/2014/11/29/189736-opep-cest-larabie-saoudite-qui-decide-aux-marches-de-sajuster-maintenant

[Fagotto]

Le marché reprend ses droits sur l'un des secteurs les plus etatisés du l'économie mondiale? Mouais bof n'exagérons rien.

[the_student]

Les intérêts contradictoires des pays de l'OPEP ont empêché le cartel de fonctionner correctement, c'est assurément un grand pas dans la bonne direction. Vivement que ces pays se retrouvent totalement en concurrence.

[Tramp]

Les cartels ont leur place sur le marché.