[Sérieux] Guerre en Ukraine

[Solomos]

Bon OK, pour les operations an Afrique, on pouvait avoir un doute. Mais la participation de Wagner à l'invasion de l'Ukraine, on est d'accord que c'était forcement la Russie qui payait ?

Et la Russie qui nous prend pour des cons, je ne peux pas dire que les bras m'en tombent. ( "La Crimée on n'a rien fait, le Donbass s'est soulevé tout seul, les accords de Minsk oui on va les respecter")

[Marlenus]

3 hours ago, Solomos said:

Bon OK, pour les operations an Afrique, on pouvait avoir un doute. Mais la participation de Wagner à l'invasion de l'Ukraine, on est d'accord que c'était forcement la Russie qui payait ?

Et la Russie qui nous prend pour des cons, je ne peux pas dire que les bras m'en tombent. ( "La Crimée on n'a rien fait, le Donbass s'est soulevé tout seul, les accords de Minsk oui on va les respecter")

Oui.

 

Maintenant, ce genre de narratif n'est pas uniquement fait pour les ennemis, il est aussi fait pour que les alliés aient un narratif à donner.

Maintenant même les chinois ne peuvent nier que les petits hommes verts étaient à la solde de Moscou.

 

La diplomatie c'est un grand jeu de dupes consentants.

[Daumantas]

Une vidéo sur le coup d'état de Prigojine que je trouve intéressante.

[Lexington]

La Russie arrête de publier certains indicateurs financiers. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-22/russia-covers-up-key-budget-spending-data-as-war-swells-deficit

 

Et la tête du déficit ne s'améliore pas selon Bloomberg :

 

Chiffres en YTD à chaque fois

 

Mais tout va pour le mieux 

[Freezbee]

Sourovikine, un des deux généraux qui avait demandé à Prigojine de stopper sa mutinerie, aurait été arrêté :

 

 

 

[Freezbee]

https://www.moscowtimes.ru/2023/06/28/istochniki-v-minoboroni-soobschayut-ob-areste-generala-surovikina-a47384

 

Citation

Le commandant adjoint du groupe conjoint des troupes russes en Ukraine, le général Sergei Surovikin, a été arrêté. Cette information a été fournie au Moscow Times par deux sources proches de l'appareil du ministère de la Défense. Officiellement, le ministère n'a pas commenté cette information.

 

"Là, l'histoire avec lui n'était pas "OK". Pour le pouvoir. Je ne peux rien dire de plus », a commenté l'une des sources sur la raison de l'arrestation.

 

« Dans le contexte de Prigogine. Apparemment, il [Surovikin] a choisi le côté [de Prigozhin pendant la rébellion] et ils l'ont attrapé par les couilles », a déclaré la deuxième source. Lorsqu'on lui a demandé où se trouvait maintenant le général, il a répondu : "Nous ne commentons même pas ces informations par les canaux internes".

 

Des rumeurs sur l'arrestation de Surovikin avaient déjà été publiées par le blogueur militaire Vladimir Romanov. Selon lui, le général a été arrêté le 25 juin, au lendemain de la rébellion du PMC Wagner dirigé par Yevgeny Prigozhin. Selon lui, Surovikin se trouve au centre de détention provisoire de Lefortovo.

 

Surovikin était au courant à l'avance des projets d'Evgueni Prigojine de déclencher une rébellion armée contre les dirigeants militaires russes, avait précédemment rapporté le New York Times, citant des responsables américains familiers avec les services de renseignement.

 

Ils disent qu'ils essaient maintenant de savoir si Surovikin a aidé à planifier la mutinerie qui s'est transformée en marche sur Moscou et est devenue la menace la plus grave pour le régime du président Vladimir Poutine au cours de ses 23 années au pouvoir.

 

Selon une source du Moscow Times , il n'est pas tout à fait clair si Surovikin était au courant de la rébellion de Prigozhin. "Il ne s'est pas comporté de manière très soumise lorsqu'on lui a confié la tâche de lire le texte à la caméra et de le trier, il était trop audacieux envers la direction", a déclaré la source. Pour cette raison, selon lui, on pourrait avoir l'impression que Surovikin fait partie de la «coalition Prigozhin».

 

[Bézoukhov]

il y a 2 minutes, Freezbee a dit :

Lefortovo

 

❤️ Y a qu'en Russie que vous avez une telle permanence historique.

[L'affreux]

https://www.opex360.com/2023/06/28/larmee-polonaise-a-recu-ses-premiers-chars-m1a1-abrams-doccasion-acquis-aupres-de-lus-marine-corps/

 

Citation

En lançant une « mutinerie armée » contre le commandement militaire russe, le 24 juin dernier, le chef du groupe paramilitaire Wagner, Evguéni Prigojine a empêché le ministère de la Défense [et donc Sergueï Choïgou, son ennemi juré] d’exercer une tutelle sur ses combattants, comme cela devait être le cas à partir du 1er juillet.

 

Et si cette affaire recèle encore des zones d’ombres, le résultat est que, désormais, le groupe Wagner sera implanté en Biélorussie, dont le président, Alexandre Loukachenko, a assuré une médiation entre M. Prigojine et Vladimir Poutine, le chef du Kremlin. En outre, il pourra également continuer ses activités en Afrique [notamment en Libye, en Centrafrique et au Mali], comme l’a assuré Sergueï Lavrov, le ministre russe des Affaires étrangères.

 

Sur ce point, Fidèle Gouandjika, le ministre conseiller spécial de Faustin Archange Touadéra, le président centrafricain, a apporté un éclairage sur les relations entre Bangui et Moscou. « La République centrafricaine a signé [en 2018, ndlr] un accord de défense avec la Fédération de Russie et non avec Wagner. La Russie a sous-traité avec Wagner. Et si la Russie n’est plus d’accord avec Wagner alors elle nous enverra un nouveau contingent », a-t-il expliqué à l’AFP.

 

[Solomos]

La contre-offensive avance lentement, pour l'instant c'est encore du grignotage de positions.

Les ukrainiens avaient tentés des avancées rapides au début mais se sont fait contrer par les défenses actives des russes (drones + hélicoptères)

[Marlenus]

Un article de Meduza (site d'opposition russe en exil) sur les russes cherchant à s'installer à Marioupol:

 

https://meduza.io/feature/2023/06/29/hotim-zhit-u-morya-v-meste-s-horoshey-ekologiey

 

Google trad marche bien.

 

 

 

[Lameador]

La source est Michel Goya (aka un analyste militaire francophone respectable et respecté). Mais la vidéo, c'est 1h30 d'interview en ukrainien avec des sous-titres

 

Quelqu'un à un transcript de l'interview (en anglais) ?

 

 

[Lexington]

il y a 10 minutes, Lameador a dit :

La source est Michel Goya (aka un analyste militaire francophone respectable et respecté). Mais la vidéo, c'est 1h30 d'interview en ukrainien avec des sous-titres

 

Quelqu'un à un transcript de l'interview (en anglais) ?

 

 

 

Preneur aussi, pas le courage de me farcir ça, mais rarement déçu par les recommandations de Goya

[Lameador]

8 minutes ago, Lexington said:

 

Preneur aussi, pas le courage de me farcir ça, mais rarement déçu par les recommandations de Goya

Goya poste lui même un résumé en 5 tweets du truc (pas accessible au boulot)

 

En gros il explique que les ukrainiens se concentrent sur une campagne de contre-batterie visant à détruire le deuxième échelon de défense russe, qu'ils acceptent des pertes dans cette stratégie, e que compte tenu de l'attrition élevée des tanks ,transport blindés et pièces d'artilleries russe une situation de supériorité et percée possible est envisageable dans deux mois.

 

[fm06]

La vidéo est sous-titrée en Anglais. 

 

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[GilliB]

Citation

Hi everyone, welcome to our today's discussion, I remind that our sponsor is the trade firm Hetman and the medical center Prizma
Our guest today, Ukrainian Armed Forces officer, military expert Arty Green
Arty, good morning, thank you so much for having found time to talk to us today
Good morning yes, Arty, you know I'll start first discussing from what we were all expecting for so long
We were waiting for so long for the counteroffensive that had been discussed so much For us Ukrainians, it's normal, it's our war
Not only us were waiting for it, many in the West were also waiting for it From what we know today, what our American partners think, how they view our offensive
Let me start with their take, it's interesting how they view it there, their perspective on it
Allied perspective on UAF summer counteroffensive
General Mark Milley has said it's too early as of now to rate the offensive at such an early stage
regarding duration and scale the General reminded us that hundreds of thousands of enemy troops are dug along the whole front
and despite all that, Ukraine has started offensive probing operations, moving forward Quote:
It's a very complicated operation, a very tough and merciless fight, that will unfold over months with heavy casualties
Regarding the losses sustained by Ukraine's Armed Forces during active offensive operations that are objectively unavoidable
Defense Secretaty Lloyd Austin noted the following: the russians are spinning on the information front out of control, I quote Secretary Austin
"the russians have shown a dozen knocked out vehicles about a thousand times from ten different angles."
So that's an overview of how they see it in America And now, how's it going for real, tell us Arty
UAF Arty Green general take on UAF summer counteroffensive
First, I am not in the offensive brigades therefore I get most of the information from open public sources, just like anyone else
plus of course some information through horizontal links from my brother in arms that are involved at some level
In general in my view, it's all going exactly as it should be going in our favour
Ukraine has the experience of two major offensives offensive operations
Kharkiov operation comparison and Kherson Beryslav operation parallel
the Kupyansk-Izium (Kharkiv), when called precisely, operations
and the Kherson-Beryslav operation
these are VERY different operations I suspect, all expected and wanted the operation to look just like the Kharkiv operation
But unfortunately, that's almost impossible For the reason that it's a unique case, this theater of operation featured two major rivers
the Siverskiy Donets river and the Oskol river put the enemy under serious threat of destruction
Plus, our forces breached a segment that was weakly defended, without layered defences
and our forces having made a deep flanking maneuver put the enemy forces under serious threat (of destruction) and the enemy had to simply run
now, regarding the Kherson operation I suspect, our offensive that has just started will look very much like the Kherson offensive
Kherson operation blueprint for Southern offensive
I'll briefly remind the chronology of the Kherson operation, more exactly the Kherson-Beryslav operation
The area is split round around the middle by the Ingul river, also known as Ingulets more frequently, Ingul
the enemy bridgehead was cut in about half by this river each half of the bridgehead was leaning on one major crossing over the Dniepro
Back then, when our troops went on the offensive, there was also, like now, a bid to breach the enemy lines from the get go
on one of the segments of the front with a target to reach the Dniepro crossings in one thunder run
all of that in order to blocade the enemy troops and not let them escape through the Dniepro crossing But unfortunately, it didn't work out
the enemy was very well prepared they never lost command and control during the whole operation
BUT, after two to two and half months, I don't remember exactly the timespan
they had to leave because inevitably their whole grouping of forces would have died there, ALL of them
Now, something like that will happen, back then we manage to impose a chronic ammunition shortage on their whole Kherson (West bank) grouping of forces
by bringing under fire control their logistics flow the major Antonovsky bridge over the Dniepro was made inoperable
the automobile portion on the Kakhovka dam was also damaged
above the water lock if I recall correctly they were of course attempting to repair it, but all the time these bottleneck portions were under our fire control
and the enemy was unable to guarantee the necessary volume of supplies to maintain their grouping of troops
therefore we got firepower advantage and we used it to our benefit
By my estimate, we eliminated the majority of their troops along the line of contact
the zero line they were replenishing their losses all the time with what they call "pencils"
the "pencils" were coming and coming in some case their manpower complement had twice made the turnover, such were their losses
we destroyed almost all of their light armoured vehicles (BMD) and most of their tanks
But they were replenishing these losses, they had the possibility to do so but they certainly weren't able to supply their troops with enough ammunition
and we had an obvious firepower advantage but it didn't come immediately
That wasn't the case at the beginning of our offensive, there wasn't even parity, the enemy had superior fire power to us
then their ammunition supply started to decline and when the enemy took the decision to start the withdrawal of their troops
step by step the advantage was obviously on our side I strongly suspect that in the offensive that has started, it will be the same but for different reasons
My understanding of our plans from what we all can see is that our main effort is on the southern direction
I of course don't know what our General Staff has in mind, maybe there'll be a push in the east also
Landscape specificity on the Southern front
regarding the southern direction, one can say that there it's almost impossible to hide from precision weapons
the depth of the enemy defence leans on the Sea of Azov primarily
and their operational depth is not large the landscape is very simple
there are almost no forests, only treelines that are quite sparse and with our advantage in precision weapons, we will, sooner or later
we will take out all of their heavy firepower and thus take out the main obstacle to the advance of our troops, who will then advance little by little
I was very happy when I saw that there wasn't a starting push like happened in Kherson we didn't rush mindlessly with our brigades
on a costly thunder run hoping to breach their lines from the get go we are probing, as the enemy channels say, with company sized tactical groups
and once encountering resistance and drawing fire, don't push further
our troops don't do it it's ot what I see myself, it's the deduction made reading what the enemies say
in some of the videos that are circulating and what some of our troops say but mostly from enemy sources, note that the enemy shares a lot on the activity
Loss minimization strategy
This all means that we are implementing tactics that minimize our losses
and at the same time we are now in contact with enemy along pretty much the whole front
it means we are starting to strike them everywhere where we detect them, we strike them right away this whole sequence could take, like in Kherson, at least 2 months
Offensive expected duration two months at least
after these 2 months, the enemy was practically bled dry
hadn't they ran away, they'd have collapsed Had we stormed their positions AFTER these 2 months instead and not at the beginning of the Kherson operation
their lines would have collapsed and the russians couldn't have just withdrawn
Unfortunately we didn't do it right, we started with offensive operations from the get go against an UNSUPRESSED enemy defence
Lessons learned from Kherson offensive
Now, I see that we've made the lessons learned work and we are the stage where we detect the enemy strong points, by drawing their fire
followed by pin point destruction of all that would impede the advance of our troops
followed by cautious attempts to move forward and all of this activity takes place on a wide front
and add to that that the enemy is consuming munitions at a rate that is, I suspect, ten times what they produce
it can't go on forever like that given what we've heard previously, including the hysterical complaints of Prigozhin
about low ammunition, it means they are running low even in their far east military region dumps
that's why they'll have no choice at some point to use just as much ammunition as what they produce
that will be times less than what they use now and I strongly suspect that the allies will supply us
at least with the same volume of ammunition that we are getting now Is it a lot or little, the current volume?
One wants ALWAYS more ammunition but it is enough to destroy the bulk of the russian troops in a couple of months
and after that, one can go for the kill, make the main push and their lines will collapse regarding our slow advance, I see many people are uneasy and worried about that
add to that the pictures of destroyed equipment that Gen. Milley, eer no Secretary Austin commented
on the different angles shown again and again especially that the knocked out vehicles were stading all in one place caught during demining
waiting for the lanes to be cleared so yes, there are losses, of equipment and especially men unfortunately, but nothing close to the scale I saw earlier in the war
Again, it's obvious lessons have been learned despite the casualties, which are impossible to avoid in such a war
but we are managing to keep these losses significantly lower than what they could be
had we carried the operation in the same manner as during the Kherson operation
This gives optimism Important point, one shouldn't expect some fast paced breaching and thunder run maneuvers
and I am happy about that actually since the enemy has built up significant reserves in this theater of operations
Enemy defensive positions
the enemy spent more than half a year preparing this defence I remember very well how they prepared their defences in the Kherson area
You mean during the operations of autumn 2022? yes, in 2022 during the liberation of the Dniepro river west bank area of Ukraine
their defences were built very thoroughly and they were well thought out and on quite a wide front by the way
the length of the front was not very much smaller than it is now
Now, we are facing the same enemy commanders that we faced back then namely General Teplinsky
who commanded their troops in the Kherson area and here also he's the commander, allbeit his exact status is unclear, it looks like High Command representative
So, it's not going to be easy they've prepared themselves just as thoroughly as they did in Kherson
therefore we can expect pretty much similar dynamics where we use our advantage in precision weapons, our advantage in intelligence and reconnaissance
and methodically destroy all that will impede the advance of our ground troops
This phase could easily last for a couple of months Ok, a couple of months Absolutely
I suspect russians won't have enough stockpiled ammunition to last a couple of months
I would expect the intensity of their fire to decline over time and I repeat, sooner or later they'll be down to shooting not more than what they produce
that is several times smaller than the volume they use now Such a condition will simplify the tasks of our troops
we saw it first hand at Kherson the intensity of the enemy's fire declined several times
which made it possible for us to advance, quite comfortably and break them
obliterating methodically, each piece of heavy equipment, each dugout
obliterate each strongpoint and only AFTER that we would go further
and cut through their defences not entirely without resistance of course, but nothing like the very costly and fruitless advances of the start
That's why actually I like very much all of what we're doing now The devised strategy is correct
Strategy is correct
we go to contact with the enemy first by the way in Kherson operation we also had that phase where I was
the enemy took up defensive positions from a depth of about 5 kilometers from the shore of the Ingulets river
despite all this bank of the river being nominally under the enemy's control
and they chose not to build their defences directly on the river bank but in depth instead
from 5 to 10 kilometers behind lied the main defensive belt All this because our shore was on higher up ground
and for them to defend right along the river bank would have been extremely unwise
so they did it right Now, they are doing pretty much the same, leaving a pretty wide security zone
before their main defensive belts and they are seeking to "sell" it at the highest cost as possible to us, but we aren't taking the bait
The security zone, is a flat featureless area that we have to cross right? Is the understanding correct?
How does it look like? I meant the security zone that lies just ahead of their main defensive belt, also known as the "Surovikin Line"
the huge line that's even visible from space They understood that there is a risk of breakthrough and that's why they've built in the rear this main defensive belt
I suspect that if things go as they are now, at some point not too far away in time there won't be much of their troops left to take up positions in this belt
Since they are already committing reserve troops already at this early stage at least this is what transpires through some of the available information
that our observers share it means at some point they'll have no one left to staff those defensive belts
and the fact that we aren't advancing much if at all doesn't bother me in any way at all it means that our artillerymen, our reconnaissance teams
artillery reconnaissance teams they see the landscape very well, study it very carefully
find the targets, strike them after it happens the russian army has to replenish its losses
and the enemy reinforcements take up the same positions and this "Chernobaevka" (notorious kill box in 2022) episode repeats again and again like Groundhog day on these positions
No need to rush to please journalists
so there's no need for us to rush things and we shouldn't wait for some spectacular single quick advance on this theater of operations, it won't happen
Arty, I remember very well our previous discussion (available on this channel) where you said that we urgently need to make lessons learned
I remember very well this discussion since there was a huge number of views (close to 1 million) and I'm sure you'd have received a lot of letters from viewers
and I understand from what you are sharing that these lessons have been learned and you are very happy about that, am I correct?
Yes, yes that's correct, I see many mistakes are being corrected for instance the insane temptation of some commanders to copy the enemy stromtroop assaults (so called "meat waves")
I haven't seen that for a long time First, we can't afford to wage war like that, our population is not large enough for that
UA and allies diverging strategies
Second, we value the lives of our people much more than they value the lives of theirs There is another way to conduct offensive operations
Thank god, our allies are supporting us in improving in that regard sharing with us some of the tools to wage war in another manner
That's a first noteable improvement Another improvement is that we have many more mortars our infantry at last has got more of its main purveyor of firepower
and I see that in that regards things have improved very much on the battlefield where I am
and the other fronts too And now, the main thing
I've been looking very carefully at our allies and partners they've seemed chaotic in their actions, one day they hint that we'll get ATACMS, then they deny in order to hint at ok decision the next day
same story with multirole fighter aircraft, namely F-16 all this leads me to the conclusion that the strategic aims of our allies somehow diverge from our own
Our aim is to kick out the enemy from our country, build some barrier on the border
plant machinegun nests and prepare tank positions to keep the border tight so they never ever come back invading again
Whereas, the Americans mainly amongst the allies, the British also, they think at the level of the whole planet
They've concluded that on this planet there's now a tyrant
Putin's supposed illness
Who is capable of doing any evil This tyrant sits on the largets nominal stockpile of nuclear weapons on the planet
And that's too dangerous And yes, of course one day he'll pass away sooner or later
probably later than we'd all like I do not share the optimism regarding his supposed illness, since he's taken care of by some of the best doctors available
that all his billions can afford Difficult to tell whether he'll day from natural causes or not
Role of China
we'll see in the near future I suppose That's why we shouldn't count on this
What I see, is more of a "boil the frog slowly" strategy
Their aim is not just to defeat the russian army and its eviction from Ukraine
their broader aim is to change the regime so as to remove this danger for the world and maybe even carry out nuclear disarmament of it
and regarding this question of denuclearization of Russia
China could be an unexpected ally Since China's nominal stockpile is something like an order of magnitude smaller
than Russia's stockpile And I suspect China is absolutely not against Russia disarming
That's why here China could be an ally And this, despite Xi being a dictator just like Putin
The phase of relatively democratic centralism
in the Chinese Communist Party seems to be over now we are in a new phase
with one absolute ruler and that's also dangerous But the Chinese understand very well that having such an idiot next door sitting on a massive nominal number of nuclear warhead carrying missiles
I think the Chinese aren't against the idea of ending it Especially that Russia's society is not showing any signs of evolving into a sane society, rather the contrary
The larger population, if not universally, to a significant extend have internalized the narrative
of a Greater Russia that shall remain and expand
all this cult around Victory Day in WW2 which in turns leads to a massive approval of their so called "Special Military Operation"
It's very present there, the brainwashed population has turned insane and supports all of this
And that doesn't please much the other major powers, the decision makers that are responsible for the rule based order on the planet They want to solve this problem
Parallel with Saddam's Iraq
And drawing back on previous experience of recent campaigns, for instance agains the Saddam regime
A quick military victory, could in the end lead to nowhere no change in the regime
In 1991 Saddam Hussein got beaten very hard and was routed, however nothing happened with the regime it remained
and Operation Desert Storm was followed by Operation Iraqi Freedom to finally close the case with this dictator
That's why I imagine that they want to combine both operations (in the case of the Putin regime).
Is this a good or bad news for us this insight you are sharing?
Well, in our case we all want this whole thing to end as soon as possible Yes, that's for sure
And go back to our homes and families So in a certain sense, it's a bad news for us So this might explain why our allies supply us with weapons in a drip feed, drop by drop fashion, so they are sure
that we don't just crush the enemy and that they run away so fast that the processes I was talking about before don't happen
That's my feel of it Might very well be that this is the thinking of some powerful people they don't want a quick and swift defeat of the russians
Regime change in Russia through the war?
The regime, even defeated and down, wouldn't be out and will still keep all of his missiles and nukes
and here the enemy has gotten himself into a ukrainian bear trap
and shows no inclination to extricate himself from it voluntarily Note also the declaration of President Zelenskiy rejecting any talk of compromise
even regarding some aspects they will never accept like extraditing suspected war criminals
This means that the war will last until the fall of the Putin regime And I suspect that's not only the position of Zelenskiy, he's supported in that by the top Transatlantic decision makers
Arty, then let me change the point of view and take the viewpoint of someone like General Ben Hodges, whom I already interviewed
You might remember when he said that if we return Crimea
this will automatically lead to the fall of the Putin regime and then several times this was repeated in the West.
So if we take the western perspective, do you believe there is such a link?
Since our war must lead to the fall of the regime, therefore we must free Crimea ultimately for it to happen.
The regime could stay in place even then But anyway, we must return Crimea One thing is certain, without loosing Crimea the Putin regime won't go.
There must be many blows, in a "Death by a thousand cuts" strategy Alternatively, one strong blow may make it fall in knock-down and not stand up again
but what is needed it to bleed it dry Bleed the image of sacrality of power that their dictator enjoys there
So in Russia there starts to be some movement at last, not important if it is a Prigozhin type figure or someone else Of course he's a thug, but as of late he's gone ballistic and is becoming a loose canon
What is needed is for more people over there to go ballistic, that's why the whole story with the Russian Volunteer Corps (RVC) That's a very promising direction
Why specifically RVC and not Freedom of Russia Legion?
Because almost the whole russian population has integrated the criminal mindset and thuggish culture under the Putin mafia state
Prigozhin as a model of things to come
That's why they need a corresponding rebel leadership that's not urban liberal cosmopolitan intellectuals
but rather brutish far-right, ultra-right, ultranationalists that despite it all would be constructive
so the suitable tactic to follow is very clear and it might very well succeed.
Because there must be some alternative to the current regime in Russia, currently there is no opposition at all Something must start brewing there, that's why congrats to Prigozhin, that's the way to go
I don't think these upcoming events will just be limited to Prigozin For instance, why Putin is so afraid of mobilization?
This will be a catalyst to these processes When they'll start grabbing people of the streets, we already saw that in Dagestan region many were very unhappy
If they double down on it, then wives and mothers can rise up
and so on The process is at a middle stage
I don't see where's the end of it, I don't see the Black Swans taking to the skies and showing us where this regime ends, I don't see it
Therefore, there's a lot of work to do including here on the battlefield Bad news for them from the front is a powerful argument to weaken the Putin regime
We'll come back to Ukraine's offensive campaign, but I'd like to continue a little more about the russian situation
In the case of Prigozhin head of a paramilitary group which even by russian law aren't allowed, is therefore an outlaw
do his actions, like detaining and torturing russian officers, impact the military balance?
all of this happening publicly, insulting openly the Minister of Defence
does it make their military machine crack, or for them such behaviours are judged perfectly fine?
No, they aren't used to it, such uprisings didn't happen for a long time there So this whole dynamic is quite new, and since he's very media savvy it can't all go unnoticed
And about the army by the way, that's one of the structures where protest will appear at some point
they are being sent to their deaths in large numbers into another country, at some point it shouldn't please some of those that are expected to go
Of course, we can't kill them all someone will manage to run away, these someones should be the basis of the forces that will topple this regime
like the Russian Empire collapse when the army said we've had enough in 1917
and started spontaneously to appear Soldier's Committees and so and so on It should happen at some point in today's Russia too
I don't think that after now almost a year and a half of war, they are so happy to be here
and especially now that we are killing and maiming them at a rate of one battalion per day, sometimes more and the prospects of this rate going down are non existent
despite the fact that they aren't attacking anymore almost anywhere, their daily casualties aren't going down
Even when they are on the defensive, that's especially interesting
and what's worse for them is that our losses haven't increased noticeably
The prospects and endgame in such a situation are very clear for any even half competent military man
and just sit and wait when some projectile will fly into their dugout is not very exhilerating what helps them to some extent is that they are payed a lot by the regime
and it must definitely look like a great deal to those that are in the rear risking their lives less
But for those who sit in the trenches and have quite high prospects to end up in these trenches forever, it's not so great.
There must appear at some point what will topple the regime I will repeat, my feel is that the allies have devised this course of action
Not just like in Desert Storm to eject them from a sovereign country
But specifically weaken and collapse the regime that's a complex task that goes beyond the battlefield work is ongoing in other dimensions to achieve that
Arty, so here's my next question which might sound out of place for a military man, but I'll still ask it
Allies strategy
Ok, let's assume our allies have chose this course of action
then they must supply us with so much weapons
that will thanks to its quality supersede the quantitative advantage of the russians
to enable us to advance whilst minimizing our own casualties
in order for us to be ultimately successfull do we see that on the front as of now? Or I might be wrong to associate both aspects?
Yes, and it was even publicly said, when we lost 15 Bradley IFVs, I'm not even sure some can't be salvaged
immediately after the allies pledged another military aid tranche
they've got a couple of thousand in storage, they can supply us with 15 M2 Bradleys every week one important aspect, Bradley IFVs thanks to its superior protection saves the lives of the crews even when destroyed
So it's okay, we'll get new ones and they added even Stryker APCs to it
Stryker is a good piece of hardware also, on wheels unlike the Bradley which is tracked
ideal for quick maneuver after breaching for rapid advances
It's obvious that the allies are demonstrating that no worries we'll supply you with all the needed tools
we won't give you all at once, so you don't crush them completely in a couple of weeks
but you'll have enough to do the job
So this demonstration of 15 M2 Bradleys pledged right after the loss of 15 on the battlefield
I suspect the same logic is applied with the other weapons systems
like HIMARS missiles, Excalibur precision shells and other ammunition as it is expended on the battlefield
In a nutshell, the whole West is our rear
They aren't supply us with mountains of equipment, instead supply us methodically with what we need on the battlefield
Now Arty, if possible, you have said a lot of good things regarding our offensive
it's so important for us Ukrainians to know that but always, always one wants to know about some risks we might be facing
Risks
that's our reality in these last 2 years What are the risks at this phase of our offensive?
And also, let's add the story with the Kakhovka dam destruction, how did it impact the situation?
can we, despite the horrible nature of what the russians did, use it to our advantage in any way?
I don't know if we can "use" it but it's another demonstration to the world and all of the undecided
that the time has come to rid the world of the current russian regime. By any means available if necessary.
Ok, except nuclear war So, strenghten the sanctions
disrupt their ability to manufacture weapons so the Civilized World, and us fighting for it, keeps the qualitative edge over the Putin regime
the technological edge if this war lasts for longer
There's already an Iron Curtain, stronger than during the USSR in some ways
And the USSR held for quite long, underpinned by a very strong ideology
the Communist Party with many people who believed in it who sincerely believed that this way is the future of mankind
some similarities with the situation in China
they were smart enough to correct course with Deng Xiaping's new economic policy
and the Americans helped them a lot in doing so
and now with Xi Jinping authoritarianism we see risks of turning back on all that again
and this whole story with Putin and the attack of the Russian Federation against Ukraine
it's also related
Xi sees perfectly well where it's all going The West united
and it doing all necessary to punish the aggressor
That's why I am confident nothing will happen with Taiwan The Chinese are intelligent, experienced enough and aren't known to act without thinking first of an exit strategy
Like when in 1979 China attacked Vietnam Got badly beaten and understood right away
that it's not worth it Whilst Putin when he failed miserably with his mongoose leap on Kiev operation
he didn't get that the best time to get out of it all was then although it was obvious that all further escalations would lead to the same outcome
So in a nutshell about the risks We have a honorable and tough mission as part of our destiny as a country
make the Putin regime fall We are one of the main instruments in doing so
and a lot of people are helping us to achieve that by arming us
so we won't run out of equipment the only resource that is VERY limited for us
are the people Yes, of course! And THAT is the main risk for us!
People, the most precious resource
Had some of our generals continued launching daring frontal charges with the saber bare
in order to get medals for some village retaken
at that rate we'd have run out of men quickly, that's the main risk You might remember in our previous discussion on this channel I named a general in particular
that I categorically would never allow to lead our troops that was because his style of fighting is like that
And I got very afraid that if his doctrine of troop employment would be adopted
our human resource could dwindle very significantly and even supplied with all of the best weapons we wouldn't be able to accomplish our mission
Fortunately, as things go today, all is great, we are working just as we should be. Of course, not without losses, it's impossible to completely avoid losses during fighting on such a scale
but the method of combat work minimizes our losses
and thank god let it continue be like that then, we'll have completed our task before Fall/Autumn
By autumn? Yes sure Do you think the enemy can sustain such combat strain as today? Especially in the replenishment?
Not they will collapse before, it's not linear millimiter per millimeter The fighting can go on along the perimeter of the front
and then all of a sudden it all gives way and collapses Textbook classic example is Germany during WW1
which surrendered whilst its forces where still in France by the millions but it all collapsed
I think, we could very well see something similar You are looking quite optimistically if we can finish it by Fall/Autumn
I'm in Kiyev so it's difficult for us here to judge, but I really want so much to believe it will be like that Arty
Well, the russian army loosing around of a battalion per day, at this rate it will disappear by Fall/Autumn
Importance of contact on the ground
Most important thing is to keep that pace and it seems the allies aren't slowing the supply
our reconnaissance and intelligence capabilities are growing
I can say from the Kherson operation when we crossed the Inhulets river we established contact with the enemy
and the fight started
We knew the area very well and no matter how many reinforcements "pencils" they sent, we were cutting them down right away
and WITHOUT us carrying any offensive actions they were sustaining massive losses
every single day and curiously on the same positions
I think something similar will happen here
But again, it's important to go to contact, if the enemy pulls back somewhat, then advance to contact, pursue him
to reach and destroy them, it can go slowly yes of course we all want a spectacular lightning maneuver operation like the Kharkiov operation
here it's impossible, it's a completely different theater of operations Arty, how can we advance without aviation?
How to carry offensive without aircraft
You know in this war aviation takes a secondary role, it's there of course but it's a very small fraction of the firepower
it's difficult for me to calculate, I'd assume 3% to 5% maximum Artillery, that's 80% at least
Their aviation doesn't fly much, they have it of course
they fly and mostly lob their rockets in a fairly inaccurate way
it can't be very effective and inflict much damage on the other the Ka-52 attack helicopters with their guided anti tank rockets are a real threat
Ka 52 attack helicopter threat
typically F-16 fighter jets would have come very handy to counter that Of course, we are taking some of them down
but not as regularly as I'd like to the longer range air to air missiles in order to take down these Ka-52 is something we really need and currently lack
Our old remaining MiG-29 and other aircraft can't carry them
New equipment impact
Arty, I've noticed looking at the footage online where there are destroyed IFVs like Bradley, one fortunately doesn't see dead or wounded Ukrainian warriors
I assume if there were they'd show under different angles as Secretary Austin said
so it means as you said that it saves the lives of the crew thanks to its superior protection I've noticed reading the russian so called military correspondents
that we are attacking mostly at night or during dusk or dawn
it means we can field now better protected equipment, gain an advantage in low visibility time of day fighting
Why am I talking for so long? It's to ask if from where you are you can feel that we are getting more and more advanced equipment
Of course it's the case, especially with respect to the offensive brigades (the "Twelve") they've been equipped and trained in a quite advanced way
trained in combat tactics based on NATO protocols
NATO norms and we can see some of it, although of course there are casualties
it's impossible to fight on such a scale without losses Why at night?
Keep in mind, distance of accurate fire during daytime is always higher than during the night Even with thermal scopes at night, it's still better to fire during the day
So even a probing attack stalls, better to just pull back at night and minimize losses
plus the attack itself when you see everything thanks to advanced night vision whilst the enemy hasn't got more advanced device than a 1st or 2nd generation monocular
It makes a huge difference I have a 3rd generation night vision device, I compare it with older devices, there's a world of difference
These kinds of advantages enable us to reduce our losses
Since I repeat our main risk lies there the loss of the human resource which is nonrenewable
In order to summarize it all if we could talk about the prospects of our summer campaign, we already touched it earlier, how do you see it
Zaporizhia offensive prospects
I'll share what I view as the most likely course of events, the current tactical movements we are seeing
along large segments of the front will last for at least two months
that's the time we need in order to destroy the forces they have accumulated
direct analogy with the Kherson operation it took us 2 months to get the job done.
Then the house of cards will come crashing down and I wouldn't rule out Crimea falling in the process.
When they'll run since they would have pulled forward all of their reserves by that moment
there might be no one left to defend Crimea and it won't make sense for them Crimea since we'll be keeping its logistics under fire control
all the Crimean ports will be within striking distance the Kerch Bridge will be destroyed, the other crossings most probably also, Crimea will become an island once again.
An island under blocade It will be impossible for them to keep it
and then same logic, methodically obliterate all their positions at the Perekop isthmus
and we'll move on and cross the Perekop, even though it's narrow, into Crimea
since there will be nobody left for me it's inevitable, unless Putin, or who succeeds him, turns insane
they'll request a couple of months for evacuation then we won't attack and avoid casualties altogether
during offensive operations one shouldn't forget that in Crimea there is a lot of brainwashed people
and the risk of urban fighting, the most bloody fighting,
even when having superiority in weapons in the generation of weapons
so if we can avoid such a situation, that's good but fundamentally once we've freed the Azov Sea shore, Crimea will fall
it's automatic, Putin might still refuse reality for a couple more months
Donbass offensive prospects
Arty, what are the perspectives for the Donbass theater of operations, the occupied parts of Donetsk and Lughansk regions
Once they've used up all of their reserves, had we started offensive operations in Donbass logic would be similar
now they are burning through their troops in the South once they run out of reserves, they can't defended anything anymore
Of course the Donbass theater of operations is a much tougher terrain And it's a very good thing we didn't start our summer campaign there
it's not a surprise, the planners are pros, generals like Zaluzhniy and his team (Shaptala, Pavlyuk).
it's not the direction where offensive operations are optimal to carry. Look at how long Wagner group paramilitaries were carrying their offensive
they started it in summer 2022 and attacked, attacked, attacked, even Prigozhin admitted 20 000 killed of his troops
all that to advance what? 15km from Popasna to Bakhmut
Add to that 2 or 3 times that number in heavily wounded these are also irrecoverable losses
So it all adds up to 20 thousands + over 60 thousands, we are getting close to 100 000 thousand losses total
add to the Wagner paramilitaries the paratroopers (VDV) these were also suffering losses in the Bakhmut area. so here are the hundred thousand russian losses that were talked about
add to that the refuseniks (code "500") that have been so afraid that they won't go back to the war code 500 are also irrecoverable losses
Code 500 who are these? This is the code for those too afraid to go back to war Oh, I didn't know that!
The army has to feed them, clothe them eventually try them and so on
In Wagner they treat their refuseniks radically with their famous sledgehammer, can't do that in the regular army
there are many "code 500" in their army, and with time more and more
One thing the proportion of losses disclosed by Defence Ministry official Hanna Malyar
9 to 1, 5 to 1 who counted? someone counted, possibly our Military Intelligence
Our losses we know very precisely If our Intelligence gets the enemy casualty numbers, we can count the ratio
I know for a fact this ratio is true, despite some observers laughing it off skeptically I have seen with my own eyes
when with zero losses on our side
the enemy experienced quite heavy casualties there was also the reverse, unfortunately
where we sustained serious losses and the enemy maybe was afraid but not much beyond
but had no killed, from communication intercepts we suffered quite serious losses in frontal assaults, fortunately I haven't seen it in a long time
It's after witnessing this that I started to publicly voice urgent concern and call to immediately stop such a practice
I am not a media person but someone had to warn the country and do something about it since there was no feedback between the troops and the command
and the same mistakes were being made but now, I'll repeat I don't see it anymore
and I don't hear of it anymore such information about botched assaults, if it were to happen, would spread quickly amongst the troops
If it were to happen in say the Zaporizhia region, it would reach us here in the east maybe not immediately, after a week through some brother in arm in hospital recovering sharing experience
and we'd still know about it thank god, as of now it isn't happening
Arty, thank you so much for having been with us today, thank you
Thank you too Arty Green was with us today, for what we are very grateful and thank you to all our Patreon supporters.
 

 

[frl]

https://satellite-club.skytek.com/kakhovka-reservoir-zaporizhzhya-nuclear-power-plant/

 

Ca semble vachement moins infranchissable, non ?

[Alchimi]

C'est surtout que s'il y a besoin de refroidir la centrale, eh ben ça fait beaucoup moins d'eau de dispo en cas d'urgence.

[Soda]

Le 25/06/2023 à 22:20, Tramp a dit :

Quand t’es communiste, l’or se transforme en merde et les ingénieurs font des casseroles d’une demi-tonne. 

La Chine est-elle déjà la première puissance technologique mondiale ? - Challenges

 

Un think tank australien a publié récemment une étude comparative sur la maîtrise des technologies critiques par les grandes puissances. Un constat sans appel: la Chine arrive en tête dans 37 secteurs technologiques sur 44 considérés comme stratégiques. Une étude qui peut être perçue comme alarmiste mais qui a surtout pour ambition d'alerter les puissances occidentales sur le rythme de progression des Chinois.

 

En Occident notre arrogance risque de nous couter cher.

[Tramp]

The triumph of the Soviet Economy :

 

https://www.jstor.org/stable/3594504

[L'affreux]

C'est vrai que les communistes de l'URSS ont maîtrisé la mise en orbite avant le monde libre.

 

La Chine a beaucoup de boulets et sa réussite n'a rien de magique.

[Soda]

Il y a 2 heures, L'affreux a dit :

C'est vrai que les communistes de l'URSS ont maîtrisé la mise en orbite avant le monde libre.

 

La Chine a beaucoup de boulets et sa réussite n'a rien de magique.

 

Elle a beaucoup de boulets mais dire " nous sommes le monde libre c'est nous qu'on va gagner, on va détruire toutes les cultures multiséculaires pour imposer notre démocratie, nos mœurs, les chinoiseries hein c'est terminé, votre civilisation imprégnée par le confucianisme beurk". Pas sûr que ça marche.

[Adrian]

On a donné (et ils nous ont volé) beaucoup de technologie les chinois aussi

[Tramp]

il y a 26 minutes, Soda a dit :

 

Elle a beaucoup de boulets mais dire " nous sommes le monde libre c'est nous qu'on va gagner, on va détruire toutes les cultures multiséculaires pour imposer notre démocratie, nos mœurs, les chinoiseries hein c'est terminé, votre civilisation imprégnée par le confucianisme beurk". Pas sûr que ça marche.

C’est un fil sérieux. 

[Azref]

il y a une heure, Soda a dit :

 

Elle a beaucoup de boulets mais dire " nous sommes le monde libre c'est nous qu'on va gagner, on va détruire toutes les cultures multiséculaires pour imposer notre démocratie, nos mœurs, les chinoiseries hein c'est terminé, votre civilisation imprégnée par le confucianisme beurk". Pas sûr que ça marche.

La Chine moderne n'est pas une culture multi-séculaire, c'est de plein de façons une culture très "jeune", ayant détruit son passé (brûlé les livres, tué les intellectuels) pendant la période maoïste. Mao voulait même se débarrasser du système d'écriture chinois, pour le remplacer par un système occidental, avant d'en être dissuadé par Staline...

Le pays dans sa trajectoire actuelle n'a pas un avenir radieux. La Chine a bénéficié d'une relative ouverture du pays, ainsi que d'une population jeune et éduquée. Je te laisse regarder les courbes de démographie (merci politique de l'enfant unique) et le retour en force du PCC dans la vie des gens, pour en tirer les conclusions logiques pour les années qui viennent.

La Chine peut nous dépasser oui, si elle s'ouvre vraiment au monde et devient Taiwan ou Hong Kong. Dans le cas contraire, ce sera l'échec.

Bon, hors sujet tout ça, désolé.

[Lameador]

7 hours ago, Azref said:

La Chine moderne n'est pas une culture multi-séculaire, c'est de plein de façons une culture très "jeune", ayant détruit son passé (brûlé les livres, tué les intellectuels) pendant la période maoïste. Mao voulait même se débarrasser du système d'écriture chinois, pour le remplacer par un système occidental, avant d'en être dissuadé par Staline...

Le pays dans sa trajectoire actuelle n'a pas un avenir radieux. La Chine a bénéficié d'une relative ouverture du pays, ainsi que d'une population jeune et éduquée. Je te laisse regarder les courbes de démographie (merci politique de l'enfant unique) et le retour en force du PCC dans la vie des gens, pour en tirer les conclusions logiques pour les années qui viennent.

La Chine peut nous dépasser oui, si elle s'ouvre vraiment au monde et devient Taiwan ou Hong Kong. Dans le cas contraire, ce sera l'échec.

Bon, hors sujet tout ça, désolé.

 La modo le déplacera peut-être dans le bon fil.

 

Mais je trouve incroyable que l'on puisse sous-estimer à ce point la puissance et la détermination chinoise. Et ce face à un occident qui souffre lui aussi de faiblesses structurelles. Le régime du PCC souffre de contradictions internes, et de lourds nuages planent sur sa tête à horizon 30-50 ans. Mais d'ici 30 ans, beaucoup d'eau aura coulé sous les ponts. Et sur bien des points, la Chine nous a déjà dépassé.

 

A commencer par la puissance industrielle. Voici un graphe, de 2021, sur la production électrique des pays : la Chine c'est deux fois les US

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/267081/electricity-consumption-in-selected-countries-worldwide/#:~:text=China consumes by far the,nearly 4%2C000 terawatt hours consumed.

 

[L'affreux]

il y a 7 minutes, Lameador a dit :

Le régime souffre de contradictions internes, et de lourds nuages planent sur sa tête à horizon 30-50 ans. Mais d'ici 30 ans, beaucoup d'eau aura coulé sous les ponts. Et sur bien des points, la Chine nous a déjà dépassé.

 

Je n'ai pas l'impression qu'on ait une idée de ce qu'il se passera dans 30 ou 50 ans. J'aurais plutôt dit que la Chine d'aujourd'hui profite par inertie de l'impulsion donnée lors de l'intégration d'une économie de marché. Mais, concernant le bridage récent de cette économie par le parti communiste ainsi que la démographie provoquée par la politique de l'enfant unique, plus la sur-réaction plus violente qu'ailleurs vis-à-vis du covid19, les conséquences ont déjà commencé. Les lourds nuages, c'est maintenant et non dans 30 ans, et à cause de la démographie on peut prédire je suppose au moins 20 ans de galère ?

[Lameador]

Just now, L'affreux said:

 

Je n'ai pas l'impression qu'on ait une idée de ce qu'il se passera dans 30 ou 50 ans. J'aurais plutôt dit que la Chine d'aujourd'hui profite par inertie de l'impulsion donnée lors de l'intégration d'une économie de marché. Mais, concernant le bridage récent de cette économie par le parti communiste ainsi que la démographie provoquée par la politique de l'enfant unique, plus la sur-réaction plus violente qu'ailleurs vis-à-vis du covid19, les conséquences ont déjà commencé. Les lourds nuages, c'est maintenant et non dans 30 ans, et à cause de la démographie on peut prédire je suppose au moins 20 ans de galère ?

 

Un peu trop busy (et pas assez universitaire) pour développer mes théories, mais en gros on dit à peu près la même chose. Une impulsion forte, une institution  humaine nouvelle, ca a un élan sur 75 ans (aka trois générations). 75 ans, c'est la durée de vie de l'URSS. 

 

La Chine nouvelle s'est propulsée à partir de 1980, il lui reste donc trente ans sur sa dynamique initiale. C'est un peu la quantité de propergol qui reste dans la fusée.

[L'affreux]

Moins la démographie. Je ne parie pas sur la fin ou l'amélioration du régime (aucune idée de ce côté-là), je n'ai pas non plus une idée du risque d'effondrement économique, mais la supériorité technologique actuelle ne durera pas 30 ans.

[Tramp]

il y a 40 minutes, Lameador a dit :

A commencer par la puissance industrielle. Voici un graphe, de 2021, sur la production électrique des pays : la Chine c'est deux fois les US

Pour un PIB inférieur : à mon avis c’est exactement l’équivalent des casseroles d’une demi-tonne de l’URSS. 

[Lameador]

6 minutes ago, Tramp said:

Pour un PIB inférieur : à mon avis c’est exactement l’équivalent des casseroles d’une demi-tonne de l’URSS. 

 

En termes de mesure, la production électrique (ne chipotons pas en puriste, elle est très proche de la consommation).

Ca me semble aussi fiable qu'une mesure du PIB incluant les prix immobiliers, les brevets pharmaceutiques ou les dépenses sociales.

Ou en tout cas, ce n'est pas une mesure qui se balaye du revers de la main.